The Danger for US-China Ties

Πηγή: The Diplomat
By Wenran Jiang

Sep 30 2011

The US is wrong if it assumes it can always be business as usual after arms sales to Taiwan. As China rises, the temptation to push back grows.

The Obama administration’s decision to sell $5.8 billion in arms to Taiwan has been roundly criticized by Beijing, and has clouded bilateral relations at a time of global economic uncertainty, increased tensions in the South China Sea and ahead of the leadership transition in China next year. Add in presidential elections in the United States and Taiwan in 2012, and it’s clear that this is an extremely sensitive period in Sino-US ties.

Unlike the $6.4 billion arms sales to Taiwan last year, which had been initiated by President George W. Bush in 2008 and only implemented by the current administration, Obama’s package to Taiwan reflects his administration’s own delicate balancing act between multiple interests. By providing one of the largest ever weapons sales to Taiwan, the White House hopes to satisfy demands from Taiwan for continuous US political and military support while staving off critics at home who charge he is backing down in the face of Beijing’s threats of retaliation.

But by choosing to upgrade Taiwan’s existing fleet of F16 A/B fighters rather than offering the newest F16 C/D models as requested by Taiwan, Obama has also tried to mitigate Beijing’s concerns and soften its response. Indeed, editorials in the West have already been quick to dismiss the expected outcry from China as simply a formality. Much thunder, little rain, they predict, arguing there’s very little the Chinese government can do.

In the short term, it may well be the case that after some measured retaliatory response, the bilateral relationship will indeed return to normal, as we witnessed last year. The United States may be tempted to believe it can have it all: jobs for its arms industry at home, a strategic presence in East Asia and political leverage over mainland China’s ties with Taiwan, all the while maintaining good political and economic ties with Beijing.

But in the long run, continued US arms sales to Taiwan will have a profoundly negative impact on how the Chinese mainland perceives US intentions. One recent online opinion poll in China showed that 84 percent of those surveyed opposed US arms sales to Taiwan, with 76 percent demanding the Chinese government adopt strong retaliatory measures; more than 50 percent supported sanctions against US enterprises. While polls like this in China's state-controlled media may have to be taken with a grain of salt, a no doubt still angry Chinese public certainly isn’t good news for the United States.

Still, the retaliatory options for the Chinese government are limited, for now at least. Its economic interdependence with the United States is deepening, with $400 billion in annual bilateral trade at stake, mostly in China’s favour. Any punishment of US firms, then, could also hurt China’s own interests.

In addition, Beijing also has to balance its opposition to the US arms sales with support for the administration of Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou, who Beijing hopes will prevail in next year’s poll. Ma advocates a stable and closer relationship with the mainland, while seeking US arms – it’s less about the beefing up of Taiwan’s military strength than ensuring political backing from Washington that gives Taipei leverage in its dealings with Beijing. Ma therefore remains the best choice for the mainland in terms of being able to provide a predictable and manageable cross-strait relationship.

Despite this, the Chinese leadership will be under increasing pressure to take more substantive steps in countering US arms sales. As China’s economy and military grow stronger, Beijing will have increasing leverage over Washington in the coming years. The current pattern of large scale arms sales to Taiwan, followed by vehement complaints and some response from China, followed by business as usual, can’t go on forever. It’s likely that Beijing will further strengthen its military capabilities with an eye on Taiwan at the regional level, and the US globally. If US sales continue, China will undoubtedly feel the urge to retaliate – an extremely dangerous prospect that will leave no winners.

China’s rise a reality, and the United States needs to understand that arms sales to Taiwan won’t change the balance of power across the Taiwan Strait. Washington therefore requires a long term vision for how to deal with China’s rise. Beijing, for its part, needs to reassure Taiwan that it won’t use force to achieve its goal reunification.

Ultimately, Washington and Beijing need to do more to weaken the hardliners in both countries who perceive the other as an enemy, and who believe that both sides need to prepare for a war they believe is inevitable. It’s the only way forward.

China steps up condemnation of U.S. over Taiwan arms

A soldier stands guard at the Mashan observatory in Kinmen, one of Taiwan's offshore islands, August 22, 2011.

Πηγή: Reuters

By Chris Buckley

Sep. 22 2011

China stepped up its condemnation of the United States on Thursday for selling arms to Taiwan saying they could disrupt military exchanges, a warning that is likely to unsettle, but not derail, ties with Washington.

Arms sales are one of several irritants in the Sino-U.S. relationship which include Washington's decision to challenge Chinese duties on U.S. poultry products and U.S. pressure on China to loosen controls on its currency.

China's Foreign Ministry has already lambasted the Obama administration for telling Congress that it plans a $5.3 billion upgrade of Taiwan's F-16 fighter fleet, and Beijing warned that the step would damage Sino-American military and security links.

China considers Taiwan a breakaway province to be reunified with the mainland eventually, and by force if necessary.

"The Chinese military expresses its utmost indignation and strong condemnation of this action that gravely interferes in China's domestic affairs and damages China's sovereignty and national security interests," a Ministry of Defense spokesman, Senior Colonel Geng Yansheng, said on the ministry's website (www.mod.gov.cn).

The U.S. offer -- which includes sales of advanced air-to-air missiles, laser- and GPS-guided bombs and radars -- would "create serious obstacles to the development of ordinary exchanges between our two militaries," said Geng.

China opposes U.S. arms sales to Taiwan on the grounds they sabotage Beijing's plans for reunification. Washington says it wants Beijing and Taipei to determine their future peacefully, and that it is obliged by law to help the island defend itself.

Chinese authorities were probably still weighing just how to punish the United States and would be closely watching domestic opinion, said Sun Zhe, a professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing who specializes in U.S. policy.

"This could be a spiraling response that can be adjusted up or down," Sun said.

"When it comes to arms sales to Taiwan, the (Chinese) public is strongly against and the central government will have to take into account public opinion or risk being criticized as too weak."

But despite Beijing's anger, tensions appear unlikely to match last year's, when Chinese outrage over an earlier U.S. arms offer to Taiwan added to several disputes that roiled relations with Washington for many months.

This year both sides have sought to keep relations on a steadier path ahead of 2012, when U.S. President Barack Obama faces re-election and China's Communist Party undergoes a leadership handover.

Obama, who chose the upgrade rather than offer new planes, and Chinese President Hu Jintao will have chances to meet in coming months at regional summits and the G20 meeting in France, which is likely to discourage lingering tension.

Asked whether last year's threat to sanction U.S. companies involved in weapons sales to Taiwan still applied, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei did not give a direct answer.

"Whoever engages or participates in activities or actions that harm China's sovereignty and territorial integrity will certainly encounter the resolute opposition of the Chinese people," he told a news briefing.

Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney deplored Obama's decision to upgrade the jets rather than sell Taiwan new ones as "yet another example of his weak leadership in foreign policy."

He has also called China a cheater and vowed to slap tariffs on Chinese imports and label Beijing a currency manipulator if it didn't move quickly to float its currency.

The People's Daily, the main paper of China's ruling Communist Party, warned the United States that it has a big economic stake in ties with China.

"American politicians are totally mistaken if they believe they can, on the one hand, demand that China behave as a responsible great power and cooperate with the United States on this and that issue, while on the other hand irresponsibly and wantonly harm China's core interests," said the paper.

The U.S. upgrade of Taiwan's 145 F-16s will give them much the same capabilities as late-model F-16 C/Ds that Taiwan has sought for years without success, Washington officials said.

The United States was likely to approve selling those newer F-16 fighters later, said I-Hsin Chen, a professor of American studies at Taiwan's Tamkang University, noting the risks to pilots flying aging planes and China's growing air strength.

"If other nations in this region think that the U.S. is not fully fulfilling its security commitment to Taiwan, they would also be afraid that some day they would be abandoned," he said.

China could build a modern military by 2020, says Pentagon

China's People's Liberation Army marches in Beijing. Photograph: Chinafotopress/Getty Images

Πηγή: The Guardian
Thursday 25 August 2011

US report revealing fears over military growth is dismissed by Chinese officials as 'cold war mentality'

China appears on track to forge a modern military by 2020, a rapid buildup that could be potentially destabilising to the Asia-Pacific region, the Pentagon has said.

Fuelled by its booming economy, China's military growth in the past decade has exceeded most US forecasts. Its aircraft carrier programme, cyberwarfare capabilities and anti-satellite missiles have alarmed neighbours and Washington.

Some China watchers, including members of the US Congress, note with apprehension that rising Chinese defence spending coincides with Washington's plans for defence cuts.

"China clearly believes that it can capitalise on the global financial crisis," said the house armed services committee chairman, Howard McKeon, adding that the US military presence in the Pacific must not be sacrificed in an attempt to control US spending.

The US defence department's annual assessment to Congress on the Chinese military flagged all the major concerns about China's growing military might, including Beijing's widening edge over Taiwan. It also noted cyber-attacks in 2010 – including those on US government computers – that appeared to have originated in China.

"We have some concerns [on cyber] about some of the things that we've seen. And we want to be able to work through that with China," said Michael Schiffer, a deputy assistant secretary of defence.

The report focused on 2010, a year when the Pentagon said China's military modernisation programme paid "visible dividends". It cited China's fielding of an operational anti-ship ballistic missile, continued work on its aircraft carrier programme and the completion of a prototype of China's first stealth fighter jet, the J-20.

The J-20 programme, the Pentagon report said, would not achieve "effective operational capability" before 2018.

"Despite continued gaps in some key areas, large quantities of antiquated hardware and a lack of operational experience, the PLA [China's People's Liberation Army] is steadily closing the technological gap with modern armed forces," the report said.

A spokesman for China's embassy in Washington said the report was "a reflection of cold war mentality" and would be used as a tool to depict China as a threat.

"We hope the US will take practical steps to work with China for stable and healthy military ties by following the spirit of mutual respect, mutual trust, reciprocity and mutual benefit," the embassy spokesman Wang Baodong said in an email.

The military buildup could have a destabilising effect on the region, Schiffer said, calling for greater openness by the PLA and more bilateral military dialogue.

"The pace and scope of China's sustained military investments have allowed China to pursue capabilities that we believe are potentially destabilising to regional military balances," Schiffer said.

The Pentagon said that despite its progress at becoming a more potent regional military power, Beijing was not expected to be able to project and sustain large forces in high-intensity combat operations far from China before 2020.

That is something the United States, still the predominant military power in the Pacific, has been able to do throughout the world for decades.

One of the best ways for a military to project power is with aircraft carriers and China launched its first carrier – a refitted former Soviet craft – for a maiden run earlier this month. Schiffer said he believed Beijing was working towards building its own domestically produced aircraft carriers and sources told Reuters China was building two carriers.

Still, the report said any domestically produced Chinese aircraft carrier would not be operational until at least 2015 if construction were to start this year.

"Whether or not this [China's carrier programme] proves to be a net plus for the region or for the globe or proves to be something that has destabilising effects and raises blood pressure in various regional capitals I think remains to be seen," Schiffer said.

One of the biggest irritants in the US-Chinese relationship is Taiwan. The PLA suspended military ties with the United States for most of 2010 over US arms sales to Taiwan and warned that a renewed flurry of engagement could again be jeopardised by new arms sales to an island China sees as a renegade province.

Schiffer said the US government had not yet made a decision on any new arms sales to Taiwan, comments echoed at the state department.

A Reuters report this month said the US sale of 66 new Lockheed Martin F-16 C/D fighter jets to Taiwan appeared unlikely.

US to continue spy flights after jets 'pursued' by China over Taiwan

Gen Chen Bingde Photo: Alexander F. Yuan-Pool/Getty Images

Washington on Tuesday insisted it would continue spy flights over the Taiwan Strait after Chinese jets reportedly chased a US reconnaissance plane into Taiwanese airspace.

Πηγή: The Telegraph
By Malcolm Moore, Shanghai and Alex Spillius in Washington
4:12PM BST 26 Jul 2011


Taiwan's defence ministry said it sent two F-16 fighters to intercept the Chinese Sukhoi-27 jets near the central line across the 113-mile wide Strait in late June, the first such incursion for 12 years.

The ministry said that the two Chinese jets quickly turned around. A spokesman added that he believed the incident was "an accident" and that Taiwan had been "in full control" of the situation.

China has long objected to US reconnaissance of its coastline, especially since a US spy plane and a People's Liberation Army jet collided in 2001 near Hainan island, killing the Chinese pilot. The crew of the US plane was detained for 11 days in a major diplomatic row.

Adm Mike Mullen, the top US military official, said: "We won't be deterred from flying in international airspace. The Chinese would see us move out of there. We're not going to do that, from my perspective. These reconnaissance flights are important."

But in an article for the New York Times chairman of the joint chiefs of staff stressed that the Pentagon wants to build bridges with Beijing.

Following his visit to China and his counterpart Gen Chen Bingde earlier this month, Adm Mullen said the US was considering an exchange of more junior defence officials.

"General Chen and I are considering more frequent discussions, more exercises, more personnel exchanges," he wrote.

"We both believe that the younger generation of military officers is ready for closer contact, and that upon their shoulders rests the best hope for deeper, more meaningful trust."

The relationship between China and the US should be based on "candid and forthright" talks rather than suspicion, he added.

He said that the time had come in the US to end reflexive suspicion of China, but admonished Beijing for cutting off ties whenever it didn't like "something we do".

"That can't be the model anymore. Nor can we, for our part, swing between engagement and overreaction," he wrote.

Though there are simmering fears in the region about China's increased military might, relations between China and Taiwan have eased lately as Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou has abandoned his predecessor's pro-independence stance and boosted ties with the world's fastest-growing major economy.

China still claims sovereignty over Taiwan, which the Kuomintang claimed sovereignty over in 1949 after losing control of the mainland during the communist revolution.

Though Washington has dropped official recognition of Taiwan, the US is still obliged by law to defend the country against Chinese aggression.

In January last year President Barack Obama authorised the sale of $6.4 billion (£3.9bn) in arms, including missile systems and helicopters to Taipei, prompting Beijing to suspend military contacts for a year.

The US administration is close to a final decision on whether or not to sell 66 new F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan by Oct 1.