Showing posts with label Mexico. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mexico. Show all posts

3/26/2020

Coronavirus: Mexicans demand crackdown on Americans crossing the border

A border wall divides Nogales, Arizona from the Mexican state of Sonora
A border wall divides Nogales, Arizona from the Mexican state of Sonora


Source: BBC
March 26 2020

Mexican protesters have shut a US southern border crossing amid fears that untested American travellers will spread coronavirus.

Residents in Sonora, south of the US state of Arizona, have promised to block traffic into Mexico for a second day after closing a checkpoint for hours on Wednesday.

They wore face masks and held signs telling Americans to "stay at home".

Mexico has fewer than 500 confirmed Covid-19 cases and the US over 65,000.

The border is supposed to be closed to all except "essential" business, but protesters said there has been little enforcement and no testing by authorities.

The blockade was led by members of a Sonora-based group, Health and Life, who called for medical testing to be done on anyone who crosses from the US into Mexico.

Jose Luis Hernandez, a group member, told the Arizona Republic: "There are no health screenings by the federal government to deal with this pandemic. That's why we're here in Nogales. We've taken this action to call on the Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to act now."

The Mexican president has been criticised for his response to the pandemic, as has US President Donald Trump.

Mr Hernandez said the Wednesday demonstrations were a "first warning" to Mr Lopez Obrador, popularly known by his initials, Amlo.

The group has called for enforcement of the crossing ban on all US or Mexican citizens for tourism or medical reasons, including those who cross the border every day to attend school or work in the US.

Authorities must also conduct medical testing on Mexicans deported from the US, they said.

The group have vowed to block the DeConcini checkpoint again after shutting it down on Wednesday afternoon.

President Trump has made cutting the number of people crossing the border from Mexico into the US a centrepiece of his administration. He blames border-crossers from the south for bringing economic and social problems into the US.

He announced last week that the frontier was to close due to coronavirus.


11/20/2015

Mexican drug gangs, an Argentinian tycoon and the illicit trade of uranium to China

Argentine-born Mexican businessman Carlos Ahumada (R), accompained by his wife Cecilia Gurza, is interviewed by reporters in Mexico City, 08 May 2007. Ahumada has been implicated in illegal trade of Uranium by the leader of the Guerreros Unidos drug gang. (ALFREDO ESTRELLA/AFP/Getty Images) (2007 AFP)

Πηγή: Fox News Latino
By Gardenia Mendoza
13 Nov 2015

MEXICO CITY – A gang-related arrest in Mexico took a surprising twist last week when a portion of the suspect's testimony was leaked, revealing that the criminal organization La Familia Michoacana is also involved in the illegal trade of uranium to China.

Sidronio Casarrubias – the head of the Guerreros Unidos crime gang who was arrested last year and interrogated about his alleged involvement in the disappearance of 43 college students from Iguala, in the state of Guerrero in September 2014 – said the uranium operation in Mexico is being carried out under the orders of mogul Carlos Ahumada, a prominent Argentinian-born businessman who spent a couple of years in jail in a bribery scandal.

Casarrubias said Ahumada, who holds a dual Mexican-Argentinian citizenship, owns two uranium mines in Guerrero.

“The cargo is moved by small boats,” said Casarrubias shortly after he was arrested, but whose testimony was released only recently and published by Milenio newspaper.

“Ahumada traffics uranium … hidden among other metals,” he said, according to a Ministry of Public Security agent quoted by Milenio. “[Familia Michoacana members] take it to the port in Lázaro Cárdenas, but the majority is taken to the port of Colima [both in Michoacán], where it’s handed over to the Chinese.”

The Mexican government considers Guerreros Unidos a regional splinter group of La Familia Michoacana.

Mexico has one of the world's biggest reserves of uranium, but very little is used by the country's only nuclear energy plant, Laguna Verde. Under existing laws, all sources of uranium can be exploited only by the Mexican government. When a private company finds uranium while mining for other metals, it is required to report it to the government and shut down the mine.

It's believed that the price of a kilo can hit $6 million.

Casarrubias' testimony is alarming in a couple of ways. That the destination of the ore is China is a potential point of friction with the United States, and the possible involvement of drug gangs in the trade of material that could be used in an atomic bomb is worrisome, to say the least.

Chinese and Mexican groups have been linked in the past. In April 2014, Mexican Marines seized 300,000 tons of illicitly-acquired iron on four ships at the port of Lázaro Cárdenas that was bound for Hong Kong.

José Fernández Santillán, a security expert at the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM), explained to FNL that the transnational competition for illegally-trafficked substances and chemical elements has been boosted by the rise of small Asian companies that are "difficult to control" compared to bigger enterprises.

"These companies, what they do is take advantage of legally weak countries along the Asian coast to set up their illegal operations," Fernández Santillán said. "And on this side of the Pacific, Mexico is a key piece, because it's also part of a corrupt and weak legal state."

Mexico is a signatory to the 1969 Treaty of Tlatelolco, aimed at the denuclearization of all of Latin America, and 40 years later then-President Felipe Calderón signed onto an International Atomic Energy Agency treaty promising to wipe out all highly enriched uranium in the country.

"The trafficking of any substance or product [in Mexico] can't be understood without acknowledging corruption at three levels of government: the federal, which controls the ports and mines, and the state and municipal [levels] in Michoacán, through where the uranium supposedly circulates,” said Gerardo Rodríguez, an analyst at the University of the Americas in Mexico.

Besides Guerreros Unidos, drug cartels like La Familia Michoacana have also been implicated in the illegal trafficking of the radioactive ore.

Shortly before Casarrubias, drug trafficker José María "El Pony" Chávez testified that Ahumada had failed to report discovery of uranium at a METAL mine Campo Morado he co-owned in Guerrero. Chavez said Ahumada had members of Familia Michoacana cartel sell it quietly to the black market.

According to Casarrubias testimony, the Familia Michoacana leader, Jonny Hurtado, who goes by the nickname “El Pescado” or "The Fish," would get rides on helicopters provided by Ahumada – sometimes just to go watch a soccer game, or when federal police were closing in on him.

The Attorney General’s Office was sufficiently concerned to open an investigation of the businessman, who made his fortune from real estate, soccer teams and, most recently, mining.

Fox News Latino was unable to reach Ahumada for comment.

This is not the first time that the Mexican government has targeted the businessman. In 2004, the businessman got caught up in a Mexico City influence-peddling scandal that stemmed from a romantic affair he was having with the mayor’s cabinet chief, Rosario Robles.

Ahumada was taped with top aides to the leftist presidential candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, handing out bundles of U.S. dollars.

He was arrested in Havana and extradited to Mexico as part of the subsequent investigation and was incarcerated until May 2007, when he was cleared of all charges.


5/06/2013

Mega Banks, ATF True Culprits Behind Mexican Drug and Gun Violence



Πηγή: Old - Thinker News
By Daniel Taylo
May 5 2013

President Obama, during a recent visit to Mexico, pointed the finger at American’s use of illegal drugs and guns for Mexico’s plague of violence. “Much of the root cause for violence that has been happening here in Mexico, for which so many Mexicans have suffered, is the demand for illegal drugs in the United States,” Obama said. He continued, “Most of the guns used to commit violence here in Mexico come from the United States.”

The fact is, this story goes much deeper. It is true that there is a demand for drugs in the united states, but we should ask these vital questions: Who has facilitated this situation? Who is supporting the drug lords? Looking into this story, we can reasonably conclude that the American people are scapegoats for the crimes of money laundering banks and the ATF.

As reported by Bloomberg in 2010, mega banks including Wells Fargo (Bailed out with $36 billion in taxpayer money in 2008) and Bank of America (Which began giving credit cards to illegal aliens with no social security numbers in 2007) were caught laundering money to Mexican drug cartels. In total over $300 billion was laundered in operations that were blatantly ignored by Wachovia, now part of Wells Fargo. Among other illegal activities, the money bought planes used to deliver narcotics. After paying a measly $160 million in fines – and “promising not to do it again” – Wachovia is officially off the hook for its crimes.


Drug lords would have a hard time exerting their authority without armaments. Fortunately for them, the Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) kindly supplied weapons in operation Fast and Furious. The operation allowed guns to be sold to suspected Mexican drug dealers to be “tracked.” Not surprisingly, Fast and Furious weapons have been found at crime scenes in Mexico. Can this be chalked up to a “botched operation,” or is there a conscious intent to use it for wider objectives?

CBS news uncovered documents in 2011 that showed the ATF discussing Fast and Furious as a means to justify tighter gun control measures. Now, President Obama is pointing to this violence and proclaiming the same objectives. In his version of reality the American people – in their wanton lust for guns and drugs – are to blame.

It is vitally important that the official narrative on this issue be deconstructed. The establishment will ride on its white horse proclaiming ignorance of any wrongdoing. In fact, it will use the violence it generates to elevate itself over the people even further.

2/27/2013

Mexico: Drug war has led to 26,121 disappearances



Πηγή: CBSNews
Feb 26 2013

Mexico's new administration says an official count shows at least 26,121 people were reported missing during the term of former President Felipe Calderon, who launched the country's offensive against drug cartels.

Lia Limon, the Interior Department's subsecretary for human rights, says the list used data from local prosecutors across Mexico, and includes people reported missing for any reason during the previous administration. It doesn't include information collected after November 2012.

The list has been a subject of controversy in Mexico for weeks. After Limon said last week that some 27,000 were missing, a member of Calderon's administration disputed the figure, saying the only registry on disappeared people contains 5,319 names. Limon said the government would work to compare the official list with others assembled by government agencies and rights groups.

Just last week, a new Human Rights Watch report called Mexico's anti-drug offensive "disastrous" and cites 249 cases of disappearances, about 149 of which include evidence of being carried out by the military or law enforcement.

The report says the forced disappearances follow a pattern of security forces detaining people without warrants at checkpoints, homes, workplaces or in public. When families ask about their relatives, security forces deny the detentions or instruct them to look elsewhere.

"Virtually none of the victims have been found or those responsible brought to justice, exacerbating the suffering of families of the disappeared," Human Rights Watch said in a press release.

The report accused former President Felipe Calderon of ignoring the problem, calling it "the most severe crisis of enforced disappearances in Latin America in decades."

Mexico's Interior Department oversees domestic security and it declined to make an immediate comment about the report.
The newspaper Reforma, one of several media outlets that count murders linked to organized crime, said that in December, the first month of the new government, there were 755 drug-related killings, compared to 699 in November. In Calderon's six-year term, some 70,000 people lost their lives to drug violence, the newspaper reported, with at least 20,000 believed missing.

It's difficult to say if drug violence has risen in Mexico under the new regime of President Enrique Pena Nieto, because the government no longer provides numbers, something that started under Calderon, who last released drug-war death statistics in September 2011.


10/10/2012

Body of Mexico drugs kingpin Lazcano stolen



Πηγή: euronews
Oct 9 2012

The body of one of Mexico’s most wanted men who was killed in a shootout with marines has been stolen from a funeral home.



Heriberto Lazcano, the head of the Zetas drugs gang, was suspected of murdering hundreds of people.
Dubbed ‘The Executioner’, he was shot dead in the northern state of Coahuila on Sunday.

According to Homero Ramos, the state’s attorney general:

“Forensics experts carried out an comparative analysis of the body with the photos experts had of Lazcano, resulting in a positive match.”

His corpse was later taken by an armed gang.

Another Zetas leader known as “The Squirrel” was picked up on Saturday. Alfonso Martinez Escobedo was detained with a huge cache of weapons and ammunition in the city of Nuevo Laredo.

Zetas is one of the most deadly Mexican drug-cartels, with a membership of 10,000 gunmen. Its operations stretch from the Texas border deep into Central America.

More than 60,000 people have been killed during the Mexican government’s six-year war on drugs


9/23/2012

China in closed door negotiations to purchase Mexican crude oil without using US

Mexican crude oil to be sold to China without using the US dollar as its trading currency

Πηγή: Indemedia UK
By Von Helman
Sept 21 2012

Sources inside the Mexican government refuse to confirm that the Mexico government has been in secret negotiations with China over possible crude oil sales to China without using the US dollar.

China officials claim meetings held with the Mexican government and Petróleos Mexicanos (or Pemex) are for investment and economic growth inside Mexico. Crude oil purchases fall under this heading however officials on both sides in the past have stopped short of publicly discussing crude oil or any talks related to any special agreements relating to crude oil purchases.

Sources inside Mexico claim this week that China has in fact brokered a secret deal with Pemex to purchase crude oil using currency means other than the US Dollar. The details of this agreement are still unknown at this time but China is expected to make a public announcement within the next few days.

Over the past ten years with new trade agreements China has invested billions of dollars inside Mexico. China has helped the Mexican government create jobs and has financially supported investments in the privatization of ports and infrastructure throughout Mexico. Mexico continues to privatize large sectors of its economy and China is line to benefit from additional investments inside Mexico.

Since the 2009 global economic crisis Mexico's central bank has been quietly purchasing large quantities of gold. Mexico Central bank buys 100 tonnes of gold

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cbc02e10-7637-11e0-b4f7-00144feabdc0.html#axzz27287HHy0

Then again in May 2012 Mexico Central Bank boost gold holdings yet again and some of this gold purchased by Mexico’s Central bank has come from China.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=152096&sn=Detail

These large gold purchases by the Mexican Central bank and the successful restriction of the US dollar from use inside Mexico (as already reported) along with a closer relationship with China and speculation of secret petroleum deals that do not include using the US dollar are sure to raise new concerns in global markets as this story continues to unfold. These strategic moves on the part of Mexico’s Government and Mexico’s Central bank are said to be protective measures to shield Mexico from what it sees as the imminent and unavoidable devaluation of the US dollar. (In layman’s terms the collapse of the US Dollar)

Global finical markets are very concerned with trading oil in other currencies other than the US Dollar as doing so is actually helping to rapidly destabilize the US dollar even further. Russia and China announced this week that they have also entered into an agreement between the two countries to trade crude oil using their own currencies and not the US dollar.

Many experts have warned such actions of replacing the US dollar as the trade currency for crude oil in any country will cause the US immediate, sever, and devastating consequences that could lead to the US Dollar losing its value almost overnight. Factoring in that Mexico is one of the largest exporters of crude oil to the USA this news is especially troubling for the US Dollar.

The US government has voiced these same concerns but with the continued and uncontrollable escalating US debt the United Sates is no longer in a position to prevent other countries from taking these preemptive measures to protect themselves against the devaluation of the US Dollar which is excepted to occur with this next round of quantitative easing (also referred to as QE3) which coincidentally was also announced was underway as of this week.

As more countries around the world openly admit they are losing confidence in the US dollar there is no doubt that the US dollar is in grave peril of imminent and total collapse. In a news conference last week before federal policy makers the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said; “I don't think our tools are strong enough to offset the effects of a major fiscal shock, so we'd have to think about what to do in that contingency"

9/14/2012

Mexico captures suspected leader of Gulf cartel

The persumed  leader of the Gulf Drug Cartel, Jorge Eduardo Costilla Sanchez, 41, has been captured by Mexican Marines.


Πηγή: Peninsula
By AFP
Sept 14 2012

MEXICO CITY: Mexican marines have captured the suspected leader of the Gulf cartel, dealing a new blow to the second most powerful drug trafficking gang in the country, the navy said yesterday.

Jorge Eduardo Costilla Sanchez, nicknamed “El Coss,” was paraded before television cameras hours after he was arrested Wednesday evening in Tampico, a Gulf of Mexico coastal city in the northeastern state of Tamaulipas.

“Jose Eduardo Costilla Sanchez was at the top of the cartel considered the second most powerful criminal organization in the country,” navy spokesman Jose Luis Vergara told a news conference.

The mustachioed, portly suspect wore a bullet-proof vest and stood silently as masked marine escorted him before news cameras. Some 30 marines were chasing a car with armed men on Wednesday when they entered a house in Tampico, where the troops caught Costilla Sanchez, who did no resist arrest, Vergara said. Five other people were arrested in the operation.

The navy said it seized two large weapons, two smaller guns, 24 clips, 460 bullets of various calibers, three vehicles and expensive jewelry. Hours before the arrest, five more men identifying themselves as Costilla Sanchez’s bodyguards were caught in another Tamaulipas town, Rio Bravo, which is near the Texas border.

Costilla Sanchez was on Mexico’s list of most wanted gang bosses, with a $2.2m bounty for information leading to his capture. US authorities offered a $5m reward and a US federal court in Texas has a warrant for his arrest.

With this arrest, 23 of the 37 most wanted men in Mexico have now been either killed or captured. The navy said “El Coss” led “violent clashes” between the Gulf cartel and their former allies, the Zetas, in the states of Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas, which borders Texas.

In the 24 hours prior to the arrest, authorities said armed gangs stole vehicles and left them in the middle of avenues in three Tamaulipas cities to block traffic, creating road chaos and scaring the population. Criminals often use such tactics to evade authorities.

The Gulf cartel has been weakened since it broke ties in 2010 with its hit men, the Zetas, triggering a brutal turf war between the two gangs. Analysts say some 60,000 people have been killed in Mexico’s drug war since 2006, when President Felipe Calderon deployed 50,000 troops across the country to fight the cartels.

The latest arrest came a week after marines captured the alleged leader of another Gulf cartel faction, Mario Cardenas Guillen, known as “El Gordo” (“The Fat One”), also in Tamaulipas.

The cartel was divided after Cardenas Guillen’s brother, Antonio Cardenas Guillen, or “Tony Tormenta,” was killed in a shootout with Mexican troops in 2010, according to the navy. One side remained loyal to the Cardenas family while the other side pledged allegiance to “El Coss.”

Costilla Sanchez joined the Gulf cartel in the 1990s when it was headed by another Cardenas brother, Osiel Cardenas Guillen.

Osiel Cardenas Guillen was captured in 2003 and extradited four years later to the United States, where he is serving a 25-year prison sentence.

While the Gulf cartel has lost power, the Zetas have grown stronger and extended their tentacles to 17 of Mexico’s 32 federal entities, according to the Texas-based security analysis firm Stratfor. The Zetas are battling the powerful Sinaloa cartel for control of drug trafficking routes to lucrative markets in the United States. The Sinaloa gang is headed by billionaire fugitive Joaquin “El Chapo” (“Shorty”) Guzman, Mexico’s most wanted man.


8/23/2012

Mexico's Strategy


Πηγή: Stratfor
By George Friedman
August 21 2012

A few years ago, I wrote about Mexico possibly becoming a failed state because of the effect of the cartels on the country. Mexico may have come close to that, but it stabilized itself and took a different course instead -- one of impressive economic growth in the face of instability. 

Mexican Economics

Discussion of national strategy normally begins with the question of national security. But a discussion of Mexico's strategy must begin with economics. This is because Mexico's neighbor is the United States, whose military power in North America denies Mexico military options that other nations might have. But proximity to the United States does not deny Mexico economic options. Indeed, while the United States overwhelms Mexico from a national security standpoint, it offers possibilities for economic growth.

Mexico is now the world's 14th-largest economy, just above South Korea and just below Australia. Its gross domestic product was $1.16 trillion in 2011. It grew by 3.8 percent in 2011 and 5.5 percent in 2010. Before a major contraction of 6.9 percent in 2009 following the 2008 crisis, Mexico's GDP grew by an average of 3.3 percent in the five years between 2004 and 2008. When looked at in terms of purchasing power parity, a measure of GDP in terms of actual purchasing power, Mexico is the 11th-largest economy in the world, just behind France and Italy. It is also forecast to grow at just below 4 percent again this year, despite slowing global economic trends, thanks in part to rising U.S. consumption.

Total economic size and growth is extremely important to total national power. But Mexico has a single profound economic problem: According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Mexico has the second-highest level of inequality among member nations. More than 50 percent of Mexico's population lives in poverty, and some 14.9 percent of its people live in intense poverty, meaning they have difficulty securing the necessities of life. At the same time, Mexico is home to the richest man in the world, telecommunications mogul Carlos Slim.

Mexico ranked only 62nd in per capita GDP in 2011; China, on the other hand, ranked 91st. No one would dispute that China is a significant national power. Few would dispute that China suffers from social instability. This means that in terms of evaluating Mexico's role in the international system, we must look at the aggregate numbers. Given those numbers, Mexico has entered the ranks of the leading economic powers and is growing more quickly than nations ahead of it. When we look at the distribution of wealth, the internal reality is that, like China, Mexico has deep weaknesses.

The primary strategic problem for Mexico is the potential for internal instability driven by inequality. Northern and central Mexico have the highest human development index, nearly on the European level, while the mountainous, southernmost states are well below that level. Mexican inequality is geographically defined, though even the wealthiest regions have significant pockets of inequality. We must remember that this is not Western-style gradient inequality, but cliff inequality where the poor live utterly different lives from even the middle class.

Mexico is using classic tools for managing this problem. Since poverty imposes limits to domestic consumption, Mexico is an exporter. It exported $349.6 billion in 2011, which means it derives just under 30 percent of its GDP from exports. This is just above the Chinese level and creates a serious vulnerability in Mexico's economy, since it becomes dependent on other countries' appetite for Mexican goods.

This is compounded by the fact that 78.5 percent of Mexico's exports go to the United States. That means that 23.8 percent of Mexico's GDP depends on the appetite of the American markets. On the flip side, 48.8 percent of its imports come from the United States, making it an asymmetric relationship. Although both sides need the exports, Mexico must have them. The United States benefits from them but not on the same order.


Relations With the United States

This leads to Mexico's second strategic problem: its relationship with the United States. When we look back to the early 19th century, it was not clear that the United States would be the dominant power in North America. The United States was a small, poorly integrated country hugging the East Coast. Mexico was much more developed, with a more substantial military and economy. At first glance, Mexico ought to have been the dominant power in North America.

But Mexico had two problems. The first was internal instability caused by the social factors that remain in place, namely Mexico's massive, regionally focused inequality. The second was that the lands north of the Rio Grande line (referred to as Rio Bravo del Norte by the Mexicans) were sparsely settled and difficult to defend. The terrain between the Mexican heartland and the northern territories from Texas to California were difficult to reach from the south. The cost of maintaining a military force able to protect this area was prohibitive.

From the American point of view, Mexico -- and particularly the Mexican presence in Texas -- represented a strategic threat to American interests. The development of the Louisiana Purchase into the breadbasket of the United States depended on the Ohio-Mississippi-Missouri river system, which was navigable and the primary mode of export. Mexico, with its border on the Sabine River separating it from Louisiana, was positioned to cut the Mississippi. The strategic need to secure sea approaches through the Caribbean to the vulnerable Mexican east coast put Mexico in direct conflict with U.S. interests.

The decision by U.S. President Andrew Jackson to send Sam Houston on a covert mission into Texas to foment a rising of American settlers there was based in part on his obsession with New Orleans and the Mississippi River, which Jackson had fought for in 1815. The Texas rising was countered by a Mexican army moving north into Texas. Its problem was that the Mexican army, drawn to a great extent from the poorest elements of Mexican society in that country's south, had to pass through the desert and mountains of the region and suffered from extremely cold and snowy weather. The Mexican soldiers arrived at San Antonio exhausted, and while they defeated the garrison there, they were not able to defeat the force at San Jacinto (near present-day Houston) and were themselves defeated.

The region that separated the heart of Texas from the heart of Mexico was a barrier for military movement that undermined Mexico's ability to hold its northern territory. The geographic weakness of Mexico -- this hostile region coupled with long and difficult-to-defend coastlines and no navy -- extended west to the Pacific. It created a borderland that had two characteristics. It was of little economic value, and it was inherently difficult to police due to the terrain. It separated the two countries, but it became a low-level friction point throughout history, with smuggling and banditry on both sides at various times. It was a perfect border in the sense that it created a buffer, but it was an ongoing problem because it could not be easily controlled.

The defeat in Texas and during the Mexican-American War cost Mexico its northern territories. It created a permanent political issue between the two countries, one that Mexico could not effectively remedy. The defeat in the wars continued to destabilize Mexico. Although the northern territories were not central to Mexico's national interest, their loss created a crisis of confidence in successive regimes that further irritated the core social problem of massive inequality. For the past century and a half, Mexico has lived with an ongoing inferiority complex toward and resentment of the United States.

The war created another reality between the two countries: a borderland that was a unique entity, part of both countries and part of neither country. The borderland's geography had defeated the Mexican army. It now became a frontier that neither side could control. During the ongoing unrest surrounding the Mexican Revolution, it became a refuge for figures such as Pancho Villa, pursued by U.S. Gen. John J. Pershing after Villa raided American towns. It would not be fair to call it a no-man's-land. It was an every-man's-land, with its own rules, frequently violent, never suppressed.

The drug trade has replaced the cattle rustling of the 19th century, but the essential principle remains the same. Cocaine, marijuana and a number of other drugs are being shipped to the United States. All are imported or produced in Mexico at a low cost and then re-exported or exported into the United States. The price in the United States, where the products are illegal and in great demand, is substantially higher than in Mexico. That means that the price differential between drugs in Mexico and drugs in the United States creates an attractive market. This typically happens when one country prohibits a widely desired product readily available in a neighboring country.

This creates a substantial inflow of wealth into Mexico, though the precise size of this inflow is difficult to gauge. The precise amount of cross-border trade is uncertain, but one number frequently used is $40 billion a year. This would mean narcotic sales represent an 11.4 percent addition to total exports. But this underestimates the importance of narcotics, because profit margins would tend to be much higher on drugs than on industrial products. Assuming that the profit margin on legal exports is 10 percent (a very high estimate), legal exports would generate about $35 billion a year in profits. Assuming the margin on drugs is 80 percent, then the profit on them is $32 billion a year, almost matching profits on legal exports.

These numbers are all guesses, of course. The amount of money returned to Mexico as opposed to kept in U.S. or other banks is unknown. The precise amount of the trade is uncertain and profit margins are difficult to calculate. What can be known is that the trade is likely an off-the-books stimulant to the Mexican economy, generated by the price differential created by drug prohibition.

The advantage to Mexico also creates a strategic problem for Mexico. Given the money at stake and that the legal system is unable to suppress or regulate the trade, the borderland has again become -- perhaps now more than ever -- a region of ongoing warfare between groups competing to control the movement of narcotics into the United States. To a great extent, the Mexicans have lost control of this borderland.

From the Mexican point of view, this is a manageable situation. The borderland is distinct from the Mexican heartland. So long as the violence does not overwhelm the heartland, it is tolerable. The inflow of money does not offend the Mexican government. More precisely, the Mexican government has limited resources to suppress the trade and violence, and there are financial benefits to its existence. The Mexican strategy is to try to block the spread of lawlessness into Mexico proper but to accept the lawlessness in a region that historically has been lawless.

The American position is to demand that the Mexicans deploy forces to suppress the trade. But neither side has sufficient force to control the border, and the demand is more one of gestures than significant actions or threats. The Mexicans have already weakened their military by trying to come to grips with the problem, but they are not going to break their military by trying to control a region that broke them in the past. The United States is not going to provide a force sufficient to control the border, since the cost would be staggering. Each will thus live with the violence. The Mexicans argue the problem is that the United States can't suppress demand and is unwilling to destroy incentives by lowering prices through legalization. The Americans say the Mexicans must root out the corruption among Mexican officials and law enforcement. Both have interesting arguments, but neither argument has anything to do with reality. Controlling that terrain is impossible with reasonable effort, and no one is prepared to make an unreasonable effort.

Another aspect is the movement of migrants. For Mexicans, the movement of migrants has been part of their social policy: It shifts the poor out of Mexico and generates remittances. For the United States, this has provided a consistent source of low-cost labor. The borderland has been the uncontrollable venue through which the migrants pass. The Mexicans don't want to stop it, and neither, in the end, do the Americans.

Dueling rhetoric between the United States and Mexico hides the underlying facts. Mexico is now one of the largest economies in the world and a major economic partner with the United States. The inequality in the relationship comes from military inequality. The U.S. military dominates North America, and the Mexicans are in no position to challenge this. The borderland poses problems and some benefits for each, but neither is in a position to control the region regardless of rhetoric.

Mexico still has to deal with its core issue, which is maintaining its internal social stability. It is, however, beginning to develop foreign policy issues beyond the United States. In particular, it is developing an interest in managing Central America, possibly in collaboration with Colombia. Its purpose, ironically, is the control of illegal immigrants and drug smuggling. These are not trivial moves. Were it not for the United States, Mexico would be a great regional power. Given the United States, it must manage that relationship before any other.

Given Mexico's dramatic economic growth and given time, this equation will change. Over time, we expect there will be two significant powers in North America. But in the short run, the traditional strategic problems of Mexico remain: how to deal with the United States, how to contain the northern borderland and how to maintain national unity in the face of potential social unrest.


7/25/2012

Mexican official: CIA 'manages' drug trade

The CIA refused to comment directly on the allegations of complicity made by a low-level Mexican official 

Πηγή: AlJazeera
By Chris Arsenault
July 24 2012


Spokesman for Chihuahua state says US agencies don't want to end drug trade, a claim denied by other Mexican officials.

Juarez, Mexico - The US Central Intelligence Agency and other international security forces "don't fight drug traffickers", a spokesman for the Chihuahua state government in northern Mexico has told Al Jazeera, instead "they try to manage the drug trade".

Allegations about official complicity in the drug business are nothing new when they come from activists, professors, campaigners or even former officials. However, an official spokesman for the authorities in one of Mexico's most violent states - one which directly borders Texas - going on the record with such accusations is unique.

A spokesman for the CIA in Washington wouldn't comment on the accusations directly, instead he referred Al Jazeera to an official website.

Accusations are 'baloney'

Villanueva is not a high ranking official and his views do not represent Mexico's foreign policy establishment. Other more senior officials in Chihuahua State, including the mayor of Juarez, dismissed the claims as "baloney".

"I think the CIA and DEA [US Drug Enforcement Agency] are on the same side as us in fighting drug gangs," Hector Murguia, the mayor of Juarez, told Al Jazeera during an interview inside his SUV. "We have excellent collaboration with the US."

Under the Merida Initiative, the US Congress has approved more than $1.4bn in drug war aid for Mexico, providing attack helicopters, weapons and training for police and judges.

More than 55,000 people have died in drug related violence in Mexico since December 2006. Privately, residents and officials across Mexico's political spectrum often blame the lethal cocktail of US drug consumption and the flow of high-powered weapons smuggled south of the border for causing much of the carnage.

Drug war 'illusions'

"The war on drugs is an illusion," Hugo Almada Mireles,professor at the Autonomous University of Juarez and author of several books, told Al Jazeera. "It's a reason to intervene in Latin America."

"The CIA wants to control the population; they don't want to stop arms trafficking to Mexico, look at [Operation] Fast and Furious,” he said, referencing a botched US exercise where automatic weapons were sold to criminals in the hope that security forces could trace where the guns ended up.

The Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms lost track of 1,700 guns as part of the operation, including an AK-47 used in 2010 the murder of Brian Terry, a Customs and Border Protection Agent.

Blaming the gringos for Mexico's problems has been a popular sport south of the Rio Grande ever since the Mexican-American war of the 1840s, when the US conquered most of present day California, Utah, Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico from its southern neighbour. But operations such as Fast and Furious show that reality can be stranger than fiction when it comes to the drug war and relations between the US and Mexico. If the case hadn't been proven, the idea that US agents were actively putting weapons into the hands of Mexican gangsters would sound absurd to many.

'Conspiracy theories'

"I think it's easy to become cynical about American and other countries' involvement in Latin America around drugs," Kevin Sabet, a former senior adviser to the White House on drug control policy, told Al Jazeera. "Statements [accusing the CIA of managing the drug trade] should be backed up with evidence… I don’t put much stake in it."

Villanueva's accusations "might be a way to get some attention to his region, which is understandable but not productive or grounded in reality", Sabet said. "We have sort of 'been there done that' with CIA conspiracy theories."

In 1996, the San Jose Mercury News published Dark Alliance, a series of investigative reports linking CIA missions in Nicaragua with the explosion of crack cocaine consumption in America's ghettos.

In order to fund Contra rebels fighting Nicaragua's socialist government, the CIA partnered with Colombian cartels to move drugs into Los Angeles, sending profits back to Central America, the series alleged.

"There is no question in my mind that people affiliated with, or on the payroll of, the CIA were involved in drug trafficking," US Senator John Kerry said at the time, in response to the series.

Other newspapers, including the Washington Post and the Los Angeles Times, slammed Dark Alliance, and the editor of the Mercury News eventually wrote that the paper had over-stated some elements in the story and made mistakes in the journalistic process, but that he stood by many of the key conclusions.

Widespread rumours

US government has neglected border corruption

"It's true, they want to control it," a mid-level official with theSecretariat Gobernacion in Juarez, Mexico's equivalent to the US Department of Homeland Security, told Al Jazeera of the CIA and DEA's policing of the drug trade. The officer, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said he knew the allegations to be correct, based on discussions he had with US officials working in Juarez.

Acceptance of these claims within some elements of Mexico's government and security services shows the difficulty in pursuing effective international action against the drug trade.

Jesús Zambada Niebla, a leading trafficker from the Sinaloa cartel currently awaiting trial in Chicago, has said he was working for the US Drug Enforcement Agency during his days as a trafficker, and was promised immunity from prosecution.

"Under that agreement, the Sinaloa Cartel under the leadership of [Jesus Zambada's] father, Ismael Zambada and 'Chapo' Guzmán were given carte blanche to continue to smuggle tonnes of illicit drugs... into... the United States, and were protected by the United States government from arrest and prosecution in return for providing information against rival cartels," Zambada's lawyers wrote as part of his defence. "Indeed, the Unites States government agents aided the leaders of the Sinaloa Cartel."

The Sinaloa cartel is Mexico's oldest and most powerful trafficking organisation, and some analysts believe security forces in the US and Mexico favour the group over its rivals.

Joaquin "El Chapo", the cartel's billionaire leader and one of the world's most wanted men, escaped from a Mexican prison in 2001 by sneaking into a laundry truck - likely with collaboration from guards - further stoking rumours that leading traffickers have complicit friends in high places.

"It would be easy for the Mexican army to capture El Chapo," Mireles said. "But this is not the objective." He thinks the authorities on both sides of the border are happy to have El Chapo on the loose, as his cartel is easier to manage and his drug money is recycled back into the broader economy. Other analysts consider this viewpoint a conspiracy theory and blame ineptitude and low level corruption for El Chapo's escape, rather than a broader plan from government agencies.

Political changes

After an election hit by reported irregularities, Enrique Pena Nieto from the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) is set to be sworn in as Mexico's president on December 1.

He wants to open a high-level dialogue with the US about the drug war, but has said legalisation of some drugs is not an option. Some hardliners in the US worry that Nieto will make a deal with some cartels, in order to reduce violence.

"I am hopeful that he will not return to the PRI party of the past which was corrupt and had a history of turning a blind eye to the drug cartels," said Michael McCaul, a Republican Congressman from Texas.

Regardless of what position a new administration takes in order to calm the violence and restore order, it is likely many Mexicans - including government officials such as Chihuahua spokesman Guillermo Villanueva - will believe outside forces want the drug trade to continue.

The widespread view linking the CIA to the drug trade - whether or not the allegations are true - speaks volumes about officials' mutual mistrust amid ongoing killings and the destruction of civic life in Mexico.

"We have good soldiers and policemen," Villanueva said. "But you won't resolve this problem with bullets. We need education and jobs."


7/12/2012

The Other Consequences of Fast and Furious


Πηγή: Stratfor
By Scott Stewart
July 12 2012

On the night of Dec. 14, 2010, U.S. Border Patrol agent Brian Terry was shot and killed while on patrol in an Arizona canyon near the U.S.-Mexico border. Two guns found at the scene were linked to an investigation being run by the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) called "Operation Fast and Furious," sparking a congressional inquiry into the program and generating considerable criticism of the ATF and the Obama administration. Because of this criticism, in August 2011 ATF acting director Kenneth Melson was reassigned from his post and the U.S. attorney for Arizona was forced to resign.

Currently, the congressional inquiry is focused on U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder, who has been accused of misleading Congress about what he knew about Fast and Furious and when he learned it. The Obama administration has invoked executive privilege to block the release of some of the Department of Justice emails and memos sought by Congress pertaining to the operation. The controversy escalated June 28 when the U.S. House of Representatives voted to hold Holder in contempt of Congress for ignoring its subpoenas.

As all Second Amendment issues are political hot buttons, and with this being a presidential election year in the United States, the political wrangling over Fast and Furious is certain to increase in the coming months. The debate is also sure to become increasingly partisan and pointed. But, frankly, this political wrangling is not what we find to be the most interesting aspect of the operation's fallout. Rather, we are more interested in the way that criticism of Fast and Furious has altered law enforcement efforts to stem the flow of guns from the United States to Mexico and the way these changes will influence how Mexican cartels acquire weapons.

Law Enforcement Shifts

Several of these law enforcement changes already have been enacted. For example, the number of ATF inspectors has been increased due to additional funding for an inspection program through the U.S. Southwest Border Initiative. This means that there are more inspectors to audit the sales records of licensed gun dealers. In southern Arizona, for example, the number of inspectors was increased from three to eight. According to the ATF, these inspectors oversee the operations of some 430 federally licensed firearms dealers in six border counties.

These firearms dealers include gun store proprietors as well as independent dealers working the gun show circuit. The increase in ATF inspection staff and activity has sparked an outcry from gun show dealers who claim they are being unfairly harassed by inspectors. ATF sources have told Stratfor that they do not harass dealers, but that the staff increase has allowed the bureau to catch up on inspections it was not able to conduct in the past. The sources also said they believe that their increased presence at gun shows is scaring away cartel buyers, although, obviously, some gun show firearms are still finding their way into cartel hands.

Another procedural change occurred in August 2011, when the ATF began a new program in which licensed gun dealers in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California are required to report to the ATF bulk sales of certain types of rifles, namely semi-automatic rifles larger than .22 caliber with detachable magazines such as the semi-automatic AR-15 and AK-47 variants favored by the cartels. The new rule requires gun dealers to report people without federal firearms licenses who buy two or more of such rifles to the ATF within five working days. The rule has raised the ire of some Second Amendment activists, but the ATF notes that it has had a similar reporting regimen for multiple sales of handguns in place since 1975.

The attention that Fast and Furious attracted to the gun smuggling problem also has led to an increase in interdiction efforts by other U.S. federal, state and local law enforcement agencies, including Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Furthermore, weapons cases have reportedly been given increased prosecutorial priority by U.S. attorneys -- meaning they are now less likely to decline prosecution of a gun case than before the controversy emerged. This has led to increased pressure on lower-level violators such as straw purchasers -- people paid by arms traffickers to buy guns from dealers. Greed will ensure that people continue to work as straw purchasers, but considering the increased risk of prosecution and the new reporting requirements, straw purchasers and the traffickers who employ them will be more exposed.

In May 2012, the ATF claimed that the reporting requirements have led to a decrease in large-volume sales of semi-automatic rifles (10 or more in a single purchase). The ATF also said that traffickers are adapting their weapons procurement methods to the new regulations.

Arms Smugglers Adapt

Despite their impact, the law enforcement and reporting changes cannot stem the tide of weapons entirely. In the same way that drug flows adapt to law enforcement interdiction efforts, weapons flows will also adjust. Previous federal investigations have shown that Mexican cartels have contacts in many different parts of the United States, including cities such as Chicago and Atlanta, far from the border. One way to bypass the increase in ATF inspections and the border state reporting requirements is to buy guns in states located farther from the border. Of course, this would require the weapons to be transported longer distances to get to Mexico, increasing transportation costs as well as exposure to interdiction efforts. A shift in the points of purchase would also almost certainly result in the expansion of the new reporting requirements to other states.

Although it will never be possible to completely cut off the flow of guns to Mexico from the United States, it can be reduced. This would force the cartels to search for new sources of weapons.

One significant emerging source of AR-15/M16 variants is something called an 80 percent lower receiver. (The lower receiver is the part of the AR-15/M16/M4 that carries a manufacturer's serial number. These 80 percent lower receivers do not have any serial numbers.) Under U.S. federal firearms law, the unfinished lower receiver is not considered a firearm and thus can be shipped anywhere and sold to anyone without a license. Once the remaining machining on the lower receiver is completed, one can build an AR-15, M16 or M4 carbine by purchasing the additional required parts -- such as the bolt assembly, trigger assembly and barrel -- which also are not considered firearms. Once the weapon is fully assembled, it is then considered a firearm and subject to federal firearms law.

While the 80 percent lower receivers are intended for do-it-yourself gun enthusiasts, according to the ATF, these guns have also begun to show up in increasing numbers in Mexico.

Many if not most of the semi-automatic rifles purchased in the United States and smuggled into Mexico are converted to be capable of fully automatic fire by armorers working for various cartel groups. The same armorers are capable of finishing the machining on 80 percent lower receivers and assembling completed firearms from them. The finishing process is not difficult, and there are specialized jigs one can buy and instructional videos posted on the Internet to assist in the process. With experience, proper parts and equipment, a competent machinist can quickly and easily finish a lower receiver in an hour or less.

But acquiring 80 percent lower receivers is not the only alternative for cartels. As noted previously, the Mexican cartels obtain weapons from a variety of sources. The main reason they buy rifles and high-powered pistols from the United States is that such weapons are cheap and readily available. The United States is also nearby, so the guns do not have to be transported very far. Once in Mexico, such weapons can be sold to cartels or on the black market for three times their purchase price in the United States. This explains the difficulty of shutting down the flow of weapons between the two countries. The gun trade is almost as lucrative as the narcotics flowing north.

The premium prices Mexican cartels are paying for guns mean that even if the U.S.-Mexican border could somehow magically be sealed tomorrow, arms merchants from elsewhere would be able to fill the void. Indeed, there are some weapons that the cartels simply cannot buy from the United States due to a lack of availability. Such weapons include hand grenades, 40 mm grenades, M60 machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades and M-72 anti-tank rockets. Instead, the cartels buy such items from members of the Mexican military, militaries in countries such as Guatemala and El Salvador, or international arms dealers. The cartels would go to these same sources to replace the weapons unavailable in the United States due to increased arms interdiction efforts. South American groups such as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia and Peru's Shining Path have demonstrated that it is not difficult for groups to arm themselves via the black arms market in the Western Hemisphere.

Rifles and other weapons are durable goods, and it is not unusual to find weapons in Mexico that were provided by the United States, the Soviets or the Cubans to various governments and insurgent groups during the Cold War. Weapons are also fungible, or easily substituted for each other. This means that an AK-47 rifle made in the Soviet Union in the 1950s could be replaced by a variant made in East Germany in the 1970s or in China or Romania today. Indeed, it is not uncommon to find assault rifles of various makes and ages in cartel possession. In videos published by groups such as the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion, gunmen armed with FN-FAL rifles have appeared alongside comrades armed with various models of AKs, M16s and M4s. A cartel gunman does not care where his rifle comes from.

In recent years, Mexican cartels have begun to forge close relationships with Chinese organized crime groups that are helping the cartels obtain precursor chemicals for the manufacture of methamphetamine and other synthetic drugs. These Chinese groups also are reportedly becoming increasingly important components of Mexican cartel money laundering efforts. Chinese criminal groups have close ties with the Chinese arms manufacturers, and it is possible that they could begin sending guns to their Mexican contacts with the other illicit cargo.

The Mexican cartels have also reportedly become progressively more involved in the transportation of cocaine to Europe via Africa -- a continent awash in black market assault rifles and other weapons. Some of the cocaine trafficked into Europe is handled by Balkan groups with access to large stockpiles of weapons in Eastern Europe.

These various connections ensure that the Mexican cartels will continue to have access to assault rifles and other military ordnance for the foreseeable future, regardless of how much progress U.S. authorities make in their efforts to stem the flow of guns to Mexico.

4/13/2012

Canada raids firm tied to Kadhafi's Libya

SNC-Lavalin's headquarters in Montreal, Quebec is pictured. Police in Montreal on Friday raided the Canadian engineering firm headquarters that had dealings in Moamer Kadhafi's Libya and was loosely linked to a failed plot to smuggle the ex-dictator's son into Mexico.

Πηγή: Yahoonews
By AFP
April 13 2012

Police on Friday raided the Montreal headquarters of anengineering firm that had dealings in Moamer Kadhafi's Libya and was loosely linked to a failed plot to smuggle the ex-dictator's son into Mexico.

The Canadian company is cooperating in the investigation, the engineering firm SNC-Lavalin said in a statement after the Royal Canadian Mounted Police executed a search warrant.

"The warrant relates to an investigation of certain individuals who are not or are no longer employed by the company," it added.

RCMP spokesman Sergeant Marc Menard confirmed an "ongoing investigation," but would not disclose any details.

An AFP correspondent at the scene, meanwhile, said all access to the company's building at Rene Levesque Boulevard West in downtown Montreal, which also houses a US consulate, was blocked.

SNC-Lavalin last month fired its chief executive, Pierre Duhaime, after 23 years with the company, amid accusations he allowed $56 million in payments to foreign agents for undocumented work.

An independent review traced two payments in December 2009 and July 2011 to Riadh Ben Aissa, executive vice-president of the firm's construction arm, who was fired in February along with vice president in charge of finances Stephane Roy.

SNC-Lavalin had said it would ask police to investigate after its internal review found Aissa had sought approval to hire the agents to "secure work" for two unspecified projects, and amounts of $33.5 million and $22.5 million were "charged to contracts that didn't exist."

"The CEO's authorization of these payments did not comply with the (company's) agents policy and therefore was in breach of the code," the internal review concluded.

Furthermore, "the CEO knew that the agents were being hired... in unusual circumstances," it said.

Media reports previously linked Aissa and Roy to the arrest in Mexico of a Canadian woman accused in an elaborate plot to bring 38-year-old Saadi Kadhafi, the ex-dictator's son, into Mexico with false documents at the height of pro-democracy protests in Libya last year.

SNC-Lavalin, which oversaw billions of dollars worth of projects in Libya, including construction of a prison, had hired the alleged conspirator, Cynthia Vanier, for "a fact-finding mission" in Libya in early summer 2011.

Mexican authorities charged Vanier, a Dane, and two Mexicans on January 28 with attempted trafficking of undocumented people, organized crime and falsifying official documents.

SNC-Lavalin's stock fell almost five percent in afternoon trading in Toronto.




4/08/2012

The US War on Drug Cartels in Mexico Is a Deadly Failure


Πηγή: Truthout
By Mark Karlin
April 8 2012

This is the third article in a Truthout series on viewing US immigration and Mexican border policies through a social justice lens, focusing on the lower Rio Grande Valley, Brownsville, Texas, area. Mark Karlin, editor of BuzzFlash at Truthout, visited the region recently to file these reports. The first two installments in the series are, "The Border Wall: The Last Stand at Making the US a White Gated Community" and "Murder Incorporated: Guns, the NRA and the Politics of Violence on the Mexican Border."

The Official Story From the US State Department

On March 29, 2012, William R. Brownfield, US assistant secretary of state for the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (in other words, Hillary Clinton's point person on drug issues), testified before the House Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs. His subject was the war on drugs in the Western Hemisphere outside of the United States and Canada. Few, if any, reporters from the US press attended.

Approximately 50,000 or more Mexicans have been killed since Mexican President Felipe Calderon launched a so-called war on drug cartels. (In a recent appearance in Toronto, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta claimed 150,000 people have died in the drug war in Mexico, but the timeline Panetta was referring to was unclear, as was the origin of the figure he cited.) Given that five Juarez police officers were gunned down at a party the night before Brownfield's testimony, the Spanish-language press, unlike the American media, took an interest in his remarks.

You see, Juarez is kind of a sore spot for Mexicans. In 2010, more than 3,000 homicides took place in the city where killings are committed with general impunity, making it the murder capital of the world that year. Although Juarez's murder rate has now lowered slightly, the city's mayor - who lives across the Rio Grande in El Paso, Texas - indignantly denies that Juarez is the deadliest city on earth, even though it almost certainly remains close to being just that. Borderland writer Charles Bowden writes in "Murder City: Ciudad Juarez and the Global Economy's New Killing Fields": "The violence is everywhere. It is like the dust in the air, part of life itself."

In his statement, Brownfield provided the US House of Representatives with the usual litany of claimed successes, but he also made a few observations that say much about the failure of the US war on drugs south of the border. (Brownfield argues that the Merida Initiative, as the US drug war's counterpart in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean was named by its US funders, is having a positive impact.)

As in the United States, Widespread Poverty and Unemployment Create a Fertile Marketplace for Illicit Drugs

In the subcommittee hearing, Brownfield admitted right off: "The persistently high homicide and crime rates throughout Central America, the Caribbean and the horrific reports of violence inside Mexico are symptoms of a broader climate of insecurity throughout the region. Crime and violence are exacerbated by widespread poverty and unemployment. This is brought into greater focus as criminal organizations react to the increasing pressure placed on their operations by governments in the region with support from the United States."

The high poverty rate is also the major reason why so many Mexicans try to migrate to the United States, but several hundred thousand of them a year are turned back, and an unknown number of them become victims of the hyperviolence brought on by the US/Calderon war on drugs.

Playing a Game of Deadly "Whack-a-Mole"

Next, Brownfield acknowledged that the US war on drugs in many of the southern nations of the Western Hemisphere is basically a bloody game of whack-a-mole. "In 2008, anticipating that Mexico's efforts to challenge cartels would result in the movement of trafficking routes elsewhere," said Brownfield, "the US government formed a partnership with Central American nations to enhance their security capacity."

The top US State Department official on drugs boasted that some drug kingpins - due to US-backed military and police action - were forced to move their operations to Mexico from Colombia and are now moving some of them to Central America. Then, Brownfield predicted that they will start using the Caribbean as a base. But what is lost in his testimony is that there is no measurable indicator that the supply of illicit drugs into the United States is decreasing as a result.

So, there is no end game here. The United States is using all its vast powers to do what urban police do in American cities: chase the corner drug dealers out of one area and into another, through the use of temporary intensive "enforcement" - and then chase them back again at a later date.

In a recent BuzzFlash at Truthout commentary, Bowden was quoted as writing: "There is a second Mexico, where the war is for drugs, for the enormous money to be made in drugs, where the police and military fight for their share - where the press is restrained by the murder of reporters - and feast on a steady diet of bribes, and where the line between the government and the drug world has never existed."

In the question-and-answer period after his testimony to Congress, Brownfield (as reported in the Spanish press and translated by Truthout) "emphasized that the infiltration of the crime organizations and of the narco-trafficking in the Mexican police is 'a very, very grave problem,' above all at the local and state level, now that the federal level of law enforcement corruption has diminished."

In Nearly Half of Mexico's States, Less Than 1 Percent of Crimes Resulted in Sentencing: 80-96 Percent of Killings Go Unpunished

The New York Times recently reported that, "in 14 of Mexico's 31 states, the chance of a crime's leading to trial and sentencing was less than 1 percent in 2010, according to government figures analyzed by a Mexican research institute known as Cidac. And since then, experts say, attempts at reform have stalled as crime and impunity have become cozy partners." According to Fox News Latino, 80-96 percent of the killings in Mexico go unpunished.

A Drug-Trafficking Free Market Paul Ryan Can Love

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin), a devotee of Ayn Rand, can only love the tenacious entrepreneurialism of the government, military, law enforcement and cartel traffickers in Mexico. This is what supply-side economics is all about.

In an interview with Truthout, Ethan Nadelmann, executive director of the influential Drug Policy Alliance, explained the futility of launching a war via the joint forces of military and law enforcement (particularly, Truthout independently maintains, given the endemic corruption in Mexico.)

"A law enforcement strategy cannot defeat a dynamic global commodities market," said Nadelmann. "The illegal drug market is very much the same as alcohol, food, etc. So as long as there is demand, there will be a supply. Attempts at interdiction just moves the drug trafficking around, wreaking havoc in its wake."

Promoting Legalization Can Make for Strange Bedfellows

Yes, Ryan would be pleased - were he forthright - to know that the late Milton Friedman advocated for the legalization of drugs that are currently contraband. In an interview in the early 90s, Friedman was eager to talk about the topic:

"The case for prohibiting drugs is exactly as strong and as weak as the case for prohibiting people from overeating," said Friedman. "We all know that overeating causes more deaths than drugs do. If it's in principle okay for the government to say you must not consume drugs because they'll do you harm, why isn't it all right to say you must not eat too much because you'll do harm?"

Friedman also noted that by not legalizing drugs, the United States is enabling massive corruption and the control of narcotics into the hands of more or less monopolistic entities: in the case of Mexico, a sort of battle for the marketplace among the cartels, the government, law enforcement and the military.

Supporters argue that Calderon, a member of the National Action Party (known by its Spanish initials, PAN), has continued an incremental break from the corrupting, single-party rule of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (known by its Spanish initials, PRI), in which the cartels, the government, the military and law enforcement had agreements on who would take which cuts of the drug money; as a result, argue Calderon's backers, there was less rampant violence. Such advocates of the Mexican president contend that he is breaking through decades of PRI corruption and slowly reforming basic state institutions, including a corrupt and inflexible judiciary and law enforcement system, which is detailed in the documentary film "Presumed Guilty."

But what does one then say about Noe Ramirez Mandujano, for instance? He served as Calderon's top anti-drug official for two years. Eventually, Ramirez was arrested, "on charges he accepted $450,000 a month in bribes from drug traffickers," according to CNN. "Ramirez was accused of meeting with members of a drug cartel while he was in office and providing information on investigations in exchange for the bribes."

The Tentative Revolt of South-of-the-Border Presidents Against the War on Drugs

The Washington Post reported that at a December meeting in Mexico City:

Latin American leaders have joined together to condemn the US government for soaring drug violence in their countries, blaming the United States for the transnational cartels that have grown rich and powerful smuggling dope north and guns south.

Alongside official declarations, Latin American governments have expressed growing disgust for US drug consumers - both the addict and the weekend recreational user heedless of the misery and destruction stemming from their pleasures.

Calderon has been tepidly testing the waters in challenging the United States (whether for domestic Mexican public relations purposes or as a real ultimatum to Washington DC is not clear) to address US domestic demand. "We are next to the largest illegal drug market in the world," Calderon said in September at a public dinner held in his honor by the Council of the Americas in Washington. "We are living in the same building, and our neighbor is the largest consumer of drugs in the world and everyone wants to sell him drugs through our door and our window."

Another group of Latin American leaders (from Guatemala, Panama and Costa Rica) recently held a mini-summit. The goal was to look for reducing the demand side in the United States as an alternative to the violence visited upon their nations by massive armed interdiction.

But the Central American leaders are treading cautiously because of their economic, political and military relationships with the United States. David Bacon, a regular author for Truthout on Mexican and Central American issues, notes that it is also important to see the US war on drugs as an extension of its foreign policy, particularly in the military arena.

Indeed, in 2011, The New York Times reported, "The United States is expanding its role in Mexico's bloody fight against drug trafficking organizations, sending new CIA operatives and retired military personnel to the country and considering plans to deploy private security contractors in hopes of turning around a multibillion-dollar effort that so far has shown few results."

For years, the United States has held the marionette strings on Latin American armies, moving their puppets via military aid, training armed forces leaders through what was then named the School of the Americas (now the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation), the backing of right-wing death squads (often affiliated with national armies) and the provision of counterinsurgency advisers, to name a few methods of asserting military hegemony in the Western Hemisphere, apart from Canada.

That brings us back to the so-called war on drugs in Mexico.

In an article in The Nation, Bowden and borderland researcher-expert Molly Molloy explain what they believe is happening in Mexico as thousands die and disappear while the US press all but ignores the situation:

Calderón's war, assisted by the United States, terrorizes the Mexican people, generates thousands of documented human rights abuses by the police and Mexican Army and inspires lies told by American politicians that violence is spilling across the border (in fact, it has been declining on the US side of the border for years).

...

We are told the Mexican Army is incorruptible, when the Mexican government's own human rights office has collected thousands of complaints that the army robs, kidnaps, steals, tortures, rapes and kills innocent citizens. We are told repeatedly that it is a war between cartels or that it is a war by the Mexican government against cartels, yet no evidence is presented to back up these claims. The evidence we do have is that the killings are not investigated, that the military suffers almost no casualties and that thousands of Mexicans have filed affidavits claiming abuse, often lethal, by the Mexican army.

Here is the US policy in a nutshell: we pay Mexicans to kill Mexicans, and this slaughter has no effect on drug shipments or prices.

There is an exception to this last point, as CNN notes, because the shipments and profits increase, even as the quality of the drugs go up and wholesale price per kilo decreases - the free market at work.

Molloy is a librarian at the New Mexico State University in Las Cruces who has taken it upon herself to chronicle the endless ledger of the dead in Juarez in her Frontera listserv. In Mexico, there is a celebration in November called Dia de los Muertos, or Day of the Dead, to honor the spirits of the dead. For years, by highlighting news articles and commentaries about their deaths, Molloy has ensured that those who are killed in Juarez are listed on her project, that they are remembered, so that their souls are not lost in the purgatory of the forgotten. Yet many escape Molloy's chronicles because they are killed anonymously and buried in the desert or in houses turned into clandestine cemeteries. These victims are the vanished.

Molloy's is a grim task, but it is an act of mercy to the memories of those who are brutally killed - and an effort to help create, by bearing witness to a killing field, an end to the horror.

Meanwhile, in the United States, controlling the demand side appears to be interpreted as throwing people - particularly minority men - in jail for drug offenses, leading to the highest incarceration rate in the world.

Yet, the consumer market for illegal drugs continues unabated in the United States, as does the supply. Ryan might - were he ideologically honest - be the first to tell you that, when there is a $50 billion demand (perhaps as high as $100 billion or more in North America as a whole), the product will make its way to market one way or another.

As it does.



3/28/2012

With the Focus on Syria, Mexico Burns

On the U.S.-Mexico border, drug-related violence rivals immigration as a media fixation, projecting images of a so-called “failed state” and a “wave” of killings.

Πηγή: Stratfor
By Robert D. Kaplan
March 28 2012

While the foreign policy elite in Washington focuses on the 8,000 deaths in a conflict in Syria -- half a world away from the United States -- more than 47,000 people have died in drug-related violence since 2006 in Mexico. A deeply troubled state as well as a demographic and economic giant on the United States' southern border, Mexico will affect America's destiny in coming decades more than any state or combination of states in the Middle East. Indeed, Mexico may constitute the world's seventh-largest economy in the near future.

Certainly, while the Mexican violence is largely criminal, Syria is a more clear-cut moral issue, enhanced by its own strategic consequences. A calcified authoritarian regime in Damascus is stamping out dissent with guns and artillery barrages. Moreover, regime change in Syria, which the rebels demand, could deliver a pivotal blow to Iranian influence in the Middle East, an event that would be the best news to U.S. interests in the region in years or even decades.

Nevertheless, the Syrian rebels are divided and hold no territory, and the toppling of pro-Iranian dictator Bashar al Assad might conceivably bring to power an austere Sunni regime equally averse to U.S. interests -- if not lead to sectarian chaos. In other words, all military intervention scenarios in Syria are fraught with extreme risk. Precisely for that reason, that the U.S. foreign policy elite has continued for months to feverishly debate Syria, and in many cases advocate armed intervention, while utterly ignoring the vaster panorama of violence next door in Mexico, speaks volumes about Washington's own obsessions and interests, which are not always aligned with the country's geopolitical interests.

Syria matters and matters momentously to U.S. interests, but Mexico ultimately matters more, so one would think that there would be at least some degree of parity in the amount written on these subjects. I am not demanding a switch in news coverage from one country to the other, just a bit more balance. Of course, it is easy for pundits to have a fervently interventionist view on Syria precisely because it is so far away, whereas miscalculation in Mexico on America's part would carry far greater consequences. For example, what if the Mexican drug cartels took revenge on San Diego? Thus, one might even argue that the very noise in the media about Syria, coupled with the relative silence about Mexico, is proof that it is the latter issue that actually is too sensitive for loose talk.

It may also be that cartel-wracked Mexico -- at some rude subconscious level -- connotes for East Coast elites a south of the border, 7-Eleven store culture, reminiscent of the crime movie "Traffic," that holds no allure to people focused on ancient civilizations across the ocean. The concerns of Europe and the Middle East certainly seem closer to New York and Washington than does the southwestern United States. Indeed, Latin American bureaus and studies departments simply lack the cache of Middle East and Asian ones in government and universities. Yet, the fate of Mexico is the hinge on which the United States' cultural and demographic future rests.

U.S. foreign policy emanates from the domestic condition of its society, and nothing will affect its society more than the dramatic movement of Latin history northward. By 2050, as much as a third of the American population could be Hispanic. Mexico and Central America constitute a growing demographic and economic powerhouse with which the United States has an inextricable relationship. In recent years Mexico's economic growth has outpaced that of its northern neighbor. Mexico's population of 111 million plus Central America's of more than 40 million equates to half the population of the United States.

Because of the North American Free Trade Agreement, 85 percent of Mexico's exports go to the United States, even as half of Central America's trade is with the United States. While the median age of Americans is nearly 37, demonstrating the aging tendency of the U.S. population, the median age in Mexico is 25, and in Central America it is much lower (20 in Guatemala and Honduras, for example). In part because of young workers moving northward, the destiny of the United States could be north-south, rather than the east-west, sea-to-shining-sea of continental and patriotic myth. (This will be amplified by the scheduled 2014 widening of the Panama Canal, which will open the Greater Caribbean Basin to megaships from East Asia, leading to the further development of Gulf of Mexico port cities in the United States, from Texas to Florida.)

Since 1940, Mexico's population has increased more than five-fold. Between 1970 and 1995 it nearly doubled. Between 1985 and 2000 it rose by more than a third. Mexico's population is now more than a third that of the United States and growing at a faster rate. And it is northern Mexico that is crucial. That most of the drug-related homicides in this current wave of violence that so much dwarfs Syria's have occurred in only six of Mexico's 32 states, mostly in the north, is a key indicator of how northern Mexico is being distinguished from the rest of the country (though the violence in the city of Veracruz and the regions of Michoacan and Guerrero is also notable). If the military-led offensive to crush the drug cartels launched by conservative President Felipe Calderon falters, as it seems to be doing, and Mexico City goes back to cutting deals with the cartels, then the capital may in a functional sense lose even further control of the north, with concrete implications for the southwestern United States.

One might argue that with massive border controls, a functional and vibrantly nationalist United States can coexist with a dysfunctional and somewhat chaotic northern Mexico. But that is mainly true in the short run. Looking deeper into the 21st century, as Arnold Toynbee notes in A Study of History (1946), a border between a highly developed society and a less highly developed one will not attain an equilibrium but will advance in the more backward society's favor. Thus, helping to stabilize Mexico -- as limited as the United States' options may be, given the complexity and sensitivity of the relationship -- is a more urgent national interest than stabilizing societies in the Greater Middle East. If Mexico ever does reach coherent First World status, then it will become less of a threat, and the healthy melding of the two societies will quicken to the benefit of both.

Today, helping to thwart drug cartels in rugged and remote terrain in the vicinity of the Mexican frontier and reaching southward from Ciudad Juarez (across the border from El Paso, Texas) means a limited role for the U.S. military and other agencies -- working, of course, in full cooperation with the Mexican authorities. (Predator and Global Hawk drones fly deep over Mexico searching for drug production facilities.) But the legal framework for cooperation with Mexico remains problematic in some cases because of strict interpretation of 19th century posse comitatus laws on the U.S. side. While the United States has spent hundreds of billions of dollars to affect historical outcomes in Eurasia, its leaders and foreign policy mandarins are somewhat passive about what is happening to a country with which the United States shares a long land border, that verges on partial chaos in some of its northern sections, and whose population is close to double that of Iraq and Afghanistan combined.

Mexico, in addition to the obvious challenge of China as a rising great power, will help write the American story in the 21st century. Mexico will partly determine what kind of society America will become, and what exactly will be its demographic and geographic character, especially in the Southwest. The U.S. relationship with China will matter more than any other individual bilateral relationship in terms of determining the United States' place in the world, especially in the economically crucial Pacific. If policymakers in Washington calculate U.S. interests properly regarding those two critical countries, then the United States will have power to spare so that its elites can continue to focus on serious moral questions in places that matter less.