U.S. suspects Al-Qaida in Iraq active in Syria

Πηγή: StarTribune
By AP
Feb 16 2012

Top U.S. intelligence officials told Congress on Thursday that Al-Qaida in Iraq was probably behind a series of bombings against the Syrian government. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said bombings against security and intelligence targets in Damascus and Aleppo bear "all the earmarks of an Al-Qaida-like attack," leading the U.S. intelligence community to believe the Iraqi militant branch has extended its reach into Syria. He added that Syrian opposition groups may have been infiltrated by the group.

Zawahiri supports Syria uprising in new video

Πηγή: Zawahiri Times
By AFP
Feb 12 2012

Al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al Zawahiri has voiced his support for the Syrian uprising in a new video message released on jihadist forums, US website monitors said Sunday.

In the video titled “Onwards, Lions of Syria”, Zawahiri criticised the Syrian regime for crimes against its citizens, and praised those rising up against the government, the SITE Intelligence Group said.

Zawahiri, shown in front of a green curtain in the video released Saturday which runs for over eight minutes, urged Syrians not to rely on the West or Arab governments, whom he said would impose a new regime subservient to the West.

Since March last year, Syrian President Bashar Al Assad’s government has carried out a crackdown on an uprising in which more than 6,000 people have been killed.

Arab League foreign ministers will meet on Sunday in Cairo to discuss their next move over the crisis.

Long Al Qaeda’s number two, Zawahiri took over the helm of the group after Osama bin Laden was killed in May 2011 during a US special forces night raid deep in Pakistan.

The video is the latest of a number in which the militant chief has attempted to seize on the “Arab Spring” revolutions.

Al-Qaeda has been absent from the popular protests that swept the Arab world last year, leading to the fall of leaders in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia and provoking major unrest elsewhere.

Analysts argue that the phenomenon has left the global terror outfit weakened and increasingly irrelevant.

The United States said last year that it believed Zawahiri, who has been in hiding since the United States declared a “war on terror” after the September 11, 2001 attacks, was still in Pakistan.

U.S. officials: Al Qaida behind Syria bombings

Πηγή: The State
By Jonathan S. Landay
Feb 11 2012

WASHINGTON — The Iraqi branch of al Qaida, seeking to exploit the bloody turmoil in Syria to reassert its potency, carried out two recent bombings in the Syrian capital, Damascus, and likely was behind suicide bombings Friday that killed at least 28 people in the largest city, Aleppo, U.S. officials told McClatchy.

The officials cited U.S. intelligence reports on the incidents, which appear to verify Syrian President Bashar Assad's charges of al Qaida involvement in the 11-month uprising against his rule. The Syrian opposition has claimed that Assad's regime, which has responded with massive force against the uprising, staged the bombings to discredit the pro-democracy movement calling for his ouster.

The international terrorist network's presence in Syria also raises the possibility that Islamic extremists will try to hijack the uprising, which would seriously complicate efforts by the United States and its European and Arab partners to force Assad's regime from power. On Friday, President Barack Obama repeated his call for Assad to step down, accusing his forces of "outrageous bloodshed."

The U.S. intelligence reports indicate that the bombings came on the orders of Ayman al Zawahiri, the Egyptian extremist who assumed leadership of al Qaida's Pakistan-based central command after the May 2011 death of Osama bin Laden. They suggest that Zawahiri still wields considerable influence over the network's affiliates despite the losses the Pakistan-based core group has suffered from missile-firing CIA drones and other intensified U.S. counterterrorism operations.

U.S. officials said that al Qaida in Iraq, or AQI, began pushing to become involved in Syria as Assad's security forces and gangs of loyalist thugs launched a vicious crackdown on opposition demonstrations, igniting large-scale bloodshed. Growing numbers of lightly armed army deserters and civilians have joined an armed insurrection, and perhaps thousands of people have been killed.

Zawahiri finally authorized AQI to begin operations in Syria, the officials said, in what's believed to be the first time that the branch has operated outside of Iraq.

"This was Zawahiri basically taking the shackles off," said a U.S. official with access to the intelligence reports. Like others interviewed for this story, he spoke on condition of anonymity because the issue involves classified information.

U.S. officials believe that the Sunni Muslim AQI was looking to expand beyond Iraq, where it has been stepping up attacks on majority Shiites. In Syria, Assad heads a regime dominated by Alawites, a minority Shiite Muslim sect that has ruthlessly ruled the Sunni Muslim-majority country since Assad's father seized power in a 1963 coup.

While the extent of AQI's presence in Syria is unknown, U.S. officials believe that it's too small to have a decisive effect on the conflict. Although al Qaida and its affiliates may have sought to play roles in other Arab Spring uprisings, this appeared to be the first time that the network had successfully done so.

"This has less to do with the targets and more to do with the opportunity," the U.S. official said.

Fears of AQI's widening ambitions are one reason why the United States wants to maintain good relations with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki despite concerns over his increasingly autocratic rule, a second U.S. official said.

"We desperately need to partner with him (Maliki) to go after al Qaida. We think we can," the official said. "Because these guys are already spreading. They did the two attacks in Damascus."

The first Damascus attack occurred Dec. 23, when suicide bombers detonated cars packed with explosives outside intelligence agency compounds in the Syrian capital. At least 44 people were killed and more than 160 wounded.

Then, on Jan. 6, at least 26 people were killed and dozens injured in a bombing against a second intelligence agency compound.

As regime forces continued pummeling the opposition stronghold of Homs on Friday, two suicide bombers driving explosives-packed vehicles attacked security compounds in Aleppo, killing at least 28 people. It was the first significant violence to strike the commercial center, which has largely remained loyal to Assad.

The Assad regime blamed all of the attacks on al Qaida, citing them as proof that it is fighting terrorists and not a pro-democracy movement. In each case, opposition activists accused the regime of staging the bombings to discredit their movement and undermine the support it's receiving from the United States, European powers and the Arab League.

The U.S. officials said that AQI and Zawahiri apparently see Syria's turmoil as an opportunity to reassert themselves after the battering the core group has taken with the death of bin Laden and the killing and capture of key operatives in Pakistan's tribal areas.

They "are seeing space, seeing a vacuum, and opportunity to bounce back and they are taking advantage of it," said the first U.S. official.

AQI operatives may also think that Syria offers them the possibility of challenging Zawahiri and his group for leadership of the network.

"We never had to worry about the al Qaida in Iraq people, bad as they were in Iraq, providing real competition to the main al Qaida force," he said. "But that can happen. Because the main al Qaida force has been decimated in Pakistan, and these guys may get a new lease on life."

A third U.S. official said that AQI has been able to operate in Syria because it still maintains in that country networks that it used to infiltrate foreign extremists into western Iraq to fight U.S. forces.

"This is opportunism, plain and simple," he said.

Iraq al-Qaida says US withdrew to save money

Πηγή: Trib Today
By AP
Jan 26 2012

BAGHDAD (AP) — The U.S. pulled its troops out of Iraq because its economy is collapsing and it needed to save money, an al-Qaida front group said in a message posted on its website Wednesday, its first online comment since the U.S. completed its pullout last month after nine years of war.

Al-Qaida was one of the main U.S. enemies in Iraq. It was behind some of the deadliest attacks on U.S. soldiers, Iraqi security forces and American-backed government institutions. Since the U.S. pullout, al-Qaida and other Sunni militants have stepped up attacks on Shiites, killing more than 170 people since the beginning of the year and raising concern that the surge in violence and an escalating political crisis might deteriorate into a civil war.

In an audio message, a spokesman for al-Qaida's Islamic State of Iraq who identified himself as Abu Mohammed al-Adnani said "America has been defeated in Iraq."

"They pulled out because its economic and human losses were unbearable," al-Adnani said. "America's bankruptcy and collapse is imminent. This is the real reason behind the withdrawal." .

Al-Adnani also called on former al-Qaida fighters who switched sides and fought the group with Americans not to "abandon jihad" now that the U.S. withdrawal has been completed. He threatened more attacks on the Shiite-led government, saying that "our explosives are at the door" of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

He told his followers not to be deceived by the number of the Iraqi government troops and its Shiite supporters, saying "they are merely beetles and flies." Sunni extremists consider Shiites as not real Muslims.

Al-Adnani called on former Sunni fighters who switched sides and fought al-Qaida to return, promising to forgive "whatever their crime was."

Despite the bombast, the appeal was a sign of the group's problems. In July, al-Qaida in Iraq made an online appeal for new fundraising ideas, saying they were in dire need of money to help thousands of widows and children of slain fighters.

At the height of Iraq's insurgency, tens of thousands of Sunni fighters, most of them members or sympathizers of al-Qaida, switched sides and joined U.S. and government forces. Their support created a crucial turning point in the war against al-Qaida in 2007.

Since then, many members of the pro-government Sunni militias known as the Awakening Councils say they haven't been given jobs fitting to their contribution in the war and still feel they're viewed with suspicion by the Shiite-led government.

After the government disarmed thousands of Awakening Council fighters and sent some to jail, al-Qaida launched a series of attacks, killing dozens of them and leading others to return to the insurgent group.

On Tuesday, one of the Council's leaders was killed in a drive-by shooting in western Baghdad, according to police and hospital officials. Mullah Nadhum al-Jubouri fought the Americans with al-Qaida, but then switched sides.

In 2009, al-Jubouri was detained in a joint U.S.-Iraqi raid on suspicion of carrying out attacks three years earlier, including downing a U.S. helicopter. He was later released.

Al-Qaida leadership almost wiped out in Pakistan, British officials believe

Haqqani Taliban fighters in their mountain camp in eastern Afghanistan. Photograph: Ghaith Abdul-Ahad for the Guardian

Πηγή: The Guardian
By Jason Burke

Dec 25 2011

Senior members of al-Qaida are feared to be moving to north Africa to open up a new front after being weakened in Pakistan.

Senior British officials believe that a "last push" in 2012 is likely to definitively destroy al-Qaida's remaining senior leadership in Pakistan, opening a new phase in the battle against Islamist terrorism.

So many senior members of the organisation have been killed in an intense campaign of air strikes involving missiles launched from unmanned drones that "only a handful of the key players" remain alive, one official said.

However, well-informed sources outside government and close to Islamist groups in north Africa said at least two relatively senior al-Qaida figures have already made their way to Libya, with others intercepted en route, raising fears that north Africa could become a new "theatre of jihad" in coming months or years.

"A group of very experienced figures from north Africa left camps in Afghanistan's [north-eastern] Kunar province where they have been based for several years and travelled back across the Middle East," one source said. "Some got stopped but a few got through."

It is unclear whether the moves from west Asia to north Africa are prompted by a desire for greater security – which seems unlikely as Nato forces begin to withdraw from Afghanistan – or part of a strategic attempt to exploit the aftermath of the Arab spring. They may even be trying to shift the centre of gravity of al-Qaida's effort back to the homelands of the vast majority of its members.

Since the death of Osama bin Laden in a US special forces raid in Pakistan last May, other senior leaders have also been eliminated, even though the numbers of strikes are lower than last year.

The problems for al-Qaida in west Asia have been compounded by a smaller flow of volunteers reaching makeshift bases in Pakistan's tribal zones. "I think they are really very much weakened," said the official. "You can't say they don't pose a threat – they do – but it's a much lesser one."

British and US intelligence sources have told the Guardian they estimate that there are less than 100 "al-Qaida or al-Qaida-affiliated" militants in Afghanistan, of whom only "a handful" were seen to pose a threat internationally to the UK or other western nations.

Officials dealing with Afghanistan and Pakistan say they see al-Qaida's activity as "effectively marginal" to events there. Instead, local networks, such as that run by the Haqqani family in the semi-autonomous tribal agency of North Waziristan on the Afghan-Pakistan border, are deemed more important.

Repeated efforts to push the Pakistani authorities to take military action against the Haqqanis have been rebuffed. Western and international officials said senior Pakistani military officers insisted they needed the Haqqani network, which has not attacked Pakistani targets though it has repeatedly struck Nato and other western targets in Afghanistan, to keep militant groups that make up the Pakistani Taliban network "under control". These latter have repeatedly struck civilian and military targets within Pakistan.

Western officials dismissed the argument as far-fetched and unrealistic. One international official said, however, that there was evidence the Haqqani family had been acting as intermediaries between the Pakistani secret services and militant groups and described the Pakistani position as "understandable".

"To move against the Haqqanis is a no-win option for the Pakistani military. If they suffer heavy casualties and fail to eliminate the group, they lose their authority and a key interlocutor. If they succeed, they lose a key asset," the official said.

Though the hunt for Ayman al-Zawahiri, the veteran Egyptian militant strategist who replaced Bin Laden as leader of al-Qaida, is a top priority, western officials say there is equal emphasis on eliminating those immediately below him in the now somewhat chaotic hierarchy.

These include Saif al-Adel, an experienced operator who may have returned to Pakistan, and Abu Yahya al-Libi, a Libyan in his mid-40s who escaped from a US prison in Afghanistan and has featured in propaganda videos.

Adel interests western intelligence services as "he is exactly the sort of low-profile, effective type who you don't want". Some doubt he is in Pakistan at all, suggesting he may be in detention in Iran.

"The fact that we can't be sure where someone like [Adel] actually is underlines how problematic dealing with this whole issue still is. There's still a lot we simply don't know," one official said.

Few doubt that al-Qaida is evolving. "Al-Zawahiri's leadership is transitional and he is handicapped by his own old school background. We are waiting to see what a new al-Qaida might look like," the official said.

Overall, analysts say, the picture is one of fragmentation, with groups in Somalia, Yemen and elsewhere pursuing local agendas. One example is the apparent move of al-Qaida-linked militants in Somalia into humanitarian aid, a departure from the core leadership's past strategies. In Nigeria, the Boko Haram group has had financial help from the affiliate al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb but is not thought to have any interest in being part of al-Qaida global.

In Europe, security services say levels of radicalisation have stabilised. Analysis of a list of "recent martyrs" published by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which shares al-Qaida's ideology and is also based in Pakistan's tribal areas, appears to show that fewer number of Europeans than feared reached the group, previously been favoured by German-based extremists. Of the near 100 listed, only one was German and most appeared to be local men.

The move to Libya is seen as particularly alarming. William Hague, the foreign secretary, recently warned that mercenaries driven out of Libya could switch allegiance to al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb. While this seems unlikely, sources in Libyan mainstream Islamist groups say there is evidence of grassroots activism by individuals linked to al-Qaida that could lead to new cells being formed.

In a recent communique, Zawahiri made a particular appeal to Libyan fighters not to lay down or hand in their weapons.

U.S.: AQ "Affiliates Have Grown Stronger"

Anwar al-Awlaki advocates violent jihad against the United States

Πηγή: Investigative Project
August 19, 2011


Al-Qaida's core in Pakistan has become weaker, while al-Qaida franchises have grown stronger, a new government report finds.

The 2010 State Department Country Report on Terrorism released Thursday highlights growing dangers from the Yemeni-based al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and al-Shabaab, a Somali Islamist group which has pledged allegiance to al-Qaida.

The report notes the groups' abilities to hatch terrorist plots outside of their stomping grounds. AQAP was behind the December 2009 failed attempt to blow up a Detroit-bound airliner and a 2010 plot to destroy several U.S.-bound cargo planes. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the 2010 twin suicide bombings that killed 76 at the World Cup in Uganda.

AQAP, the report said, has taken on "a great share of the propaganda work," with the launch of the glossy English-language magazine Inspire.

Al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI) and al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the terrorist group's Algerian-based North African affiliate did not represent a serious threat to the United States in 2010, the report said.

Al-Qaida "remained the preeminent terrorist threat to the United States in 2010," it concluded. The group "developed stronger relationships with its affiliates in the Middle East, North Africa and Europe in 2010."

Much of the 2010 report's findings remain true in 2011. Witnesses at a recent House hearing said that al-Shabaab poses a "direct threat" to the United States and AQAP has been identified as the most dangerous al-Qaida branch by officials. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates in March called AQAP "the most active and at this point perhaps the most aggressive branch of al-Qaida."

But 2011 may also mark the beginning of al-Qaida cells metastasizing in countries experiencing Arab Spring unrest.

Recent reports indicate the creation of another al-Qaida branch in Egypt. A statement from a group claiming to be the newest al-Qaida branch was posted online earlier this month. In March, a Libyan rebel commander admitted that his fighters included some al-Qaida militants who had fought in Iraq.

Meanwhile, President Barack Obama said Tuesday that "lone wolf" extremists are a greater threat than a well-coordinated attack. Al-Qaida is a "much weaker organization with much less capability than they had just two or three years ago," he added.

Analysis: Al-Qaida’s ‘Doomsday’ revenge?

Πηγή: The Jerusalem Post
By YONAH ALEXANDER AND MILTON HOENIG
08/12/2011 00:55


It is a truism that the vice of revenge has motivated humans since the dawn of history. The August 6 downing of a NATO helicopter in Afghanistan killing 30 American troops is perhaps the latest demonstration of a Taliban proxy retaliation to avenge the spectacular loss of Osama bin Laden, al-Qaida’s legendary founder. The casualties included 22 Navy SEALs from Team Six, the secretive unit behind the daring raid that killed the leader on May 2 in Pakistan.

While it is premature to reach any definitive conclusion on the rationale for the Taliban’s deadliest attack, the frightening prospect is the new al-Qaida will seek to retaliate directly against the US in a big way with weapons of mass destruction. During the Nuclear Security Summit held in Washington, DC in April 2010, US President Barack Obama expressed his concerns about a “doomsday” scenario. He warned that al-Qaida and other terrorist organizations “are in the process of trying to secure nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction, and would have no compunction at using them.”

Now, four months after the Abbottabad operation and the death of the notorious mastermind of 9/11, the lingering question that still remains is al-Qaida’s worst revenge yet to come? Two reasons account for this likely eventuality. First is the persistent motivation of deep hatred towards the US and its friends and allies. For instance, in February 1998, bin Laden pronounced a fatwah (religious ruling) that Muslims should kill Americans, including civilians, anywhere in the world they could be found, and in the following May, he stated in a declaration titled “The Nuclear Bomb of Islam,” that it is the duty of Muslims to prepare as much force as possible to attack the “enemies of God.”

Second is the network’s unending effort to obtain an unconventional capability. Bin Laden’s operatives have relentlessly searched for such weapons and the materials to build them. The lure of engaging in a successful WMD operation as a worthy follow-up to 9/11 still persists as a “divine force.” The sights are definitely on something big. For example, in 2003, New York officials were alerted to a possible hydrogen cyanide gas attack by al-Qaida operatives on the New York subway system.

It didn’t materialize, supposedly called off by Ayman Zawahiri, at the time al-Qaida’s second in command, for “something better.”

Now, once again, the threat of terrorist attack on nuclear power plants is in the spotlight after the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission asked nuclear reactor operators for additional proof of their ability to withstand acts of terrorism from the outside or perpetrated by insiders that may have unforeseen consequences.

Additionally, al-Qaida’s most likely option for a “nuclear” attack is setting off a radiological dirty bomb in a Western city that would contaminate only a small area with limited casualties but would cause widespread fear and panic, especially in the financial markets.

In the face of al-Qaida’s looming potential for unconventional revenge over the death of bin Laden, it is critical for the US and its allies to immediately strengthen their intelligence mechanisms and strategic partnerships. In the longer term, they must also employ “soft” elements in the restless Arab and Muslim worlds, including support of economic and social developments, assistance in creating job opportunities, help in reducing religious radicalism and promotion of tolerance, democratic values and civil society engagement.