Turkey Becomes a Global Player

Πηγή: New York Times
Robin Wright

Oct 7 2011

The most strategic swath of Muslim countries -- from Morocco on the Atlantic and Turkey on the Mediterranean to Iran and Saudi Arabia on the Persian Gulf -- is witnessing a major realignment. It is only beginning, just as the political transitions in Cairo, Tunis, Tripoli and beyond are in the beginning phase.

Egypt’s standing as the soul and intellectual center of the Arab world has seriously eroded during the 30-year rule of President Hosni Mubarak. And since the 18-day uprising that ousted Mubarak in February, the ruling military has failed to create a model for post-revolution transition for the region.

The military rulers of Egypt are acting like a junta. Meanwhile, Libya has more going for it than any other state in transition.

Egypt is still the largest Arab power. With 85 million people, it accounts for roughly one-quarter of the region’s 300 million Arabs. Yet the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces has been frustratingly stubborn, often acting more like a junta than a facilitator. Egypt still lives under martial law imposed in 1981.

Turkey has emerged as the most powerful country in the wider region -- and arguably one of the three or four most dynamic new players changing the balance of power worldwide.

For the better part of a century, since the Ottoman Empire’s collapse after World War I, the Arab world has basically disdained modern Turkey. But under Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey has emerged as a country with far greater economic reach and political appeal -- if not as an exact role model, then at least as a country where democracy has survived in a strong Muslim setting. Under Erdogan, Turkey's economy is healthier than many countries in Europe.

Of the 22 Arab countries, Libya may be the one with the most potential (with the emphasis on potential) to fare well as it struggles to transform a dictatorship into a democracy. With only 6.5 million people and important oil resources to pay for reconstruction and jobs, Libya has more going for it than any other state in transition.

Saudi Arabia is still rich and influential. Its pronouncement that the Syrian leadership was no longer legitimate was a pivotal turning point. Yet the kingdom is also increasingly under strain. In a country with serious youth unemployment, King Abdullah injected more than $100 billion for job creation, debt relief, housing loans and youth programs to pre-empt political challenges. The kingdom also faces a serious generation gap between its leaders and its masses.

Iran can no longer bluster, and Syria, once the region's spoiler, is under siege from within.

Despite its rhetorical bravado, Iran can no longer bluster. Its lone Arab ally in Syria faces unprecedented opposition. Turkey has signed on to U.S.-designed missile defense implicitly designed to contain Iran. And the resounding message from the Arab uprisings is a rejection of the extremist ideology and violent tactics promoted by the Islamic republic.

Syria was once the region’s spoiler. Geography gave it a significant sway over every neighbor -- Israel, Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon -- but also most regional issues. It could sabotage the Mideast peace process. But seven months of protests have virtually removed Damascus as a player, as it struggles to survive politically.

Over the next decade, all two dozen countries will witness further internal challenges and changes. The shake-up may contain many other shifts.

PS: This article is part of a debate on "Egypt's Fall in the Arab World". Go to the page to read the rest.