August 25, 2011
The decision by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il following their summit Wednesday to work on a 1100-kilometre pipeline project connecting Siberia with the South Korean market via North Korea is hogging the headlines. The gas pipeline project has striking similarity with the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline project, which Delhi has shied away from. Actually, IPI is cakewalk in comparison with the geopolitical complexities swirling around Moscow’s trans-Korean pipeline project.
The North Korea nuclear issue is far more of a flashpoint than Iran’s would be; it actually possesses nuclear weapons whereas Iran is being pressured to give assurances and guarantees that it won’t opt for weapons development. Again, India and Pakistan are adversaries, but the two Koreas are, technically speaking, still at war. Yet, the trans-Korean project is viewed primarily as holding the potential to normalise the ties between the two Koreas — IPI could have served the same purpose, too, with regard to Pakistan and India.
The project hopes to integrate North Korea into the world community. IPA would have had a comparable impact on Iran (although it is not a hermit kingdom). The logic, from Seoul’s point of view, is also similar: How to make North Korea a stakeholder? Replace NK with Pakistan and IPI would also have the same logic — India and Pakistan become stakeholders in a stable relationship.
The South Korean media welcomes the pipeline project. The leading daily Chosun Ilbo commented: “The [South Korean government should think carefully about how it can use this signal to improve relations with Pyongyang. What is needed is a wise diplomatic solution that can lead to dialogue with North Korea.” Indeed, all sorts of anxieties are gnawing the South Korean mind. How can Seoul be sure Pyongyang doesn’t cut off gas supplies? Sounds familiar to the Indian party?
The North Korean regime is highly unpredictable. But Seoul and Moscow hope that Pyongyang will weigh carefully the value of the transit fee it will be getting from South Korea for the pipeline, which is around 100 million dollars. (IPI would have entailed a transit fee by India to Pakistan, which is probably three times the amount Pyongyang would get.) Besides, Russia is working on extracting iron-clad legal guarantees in writing from North Korea. Obviously, where there is a will, there is a way.
A striking point is that the US is not opposing Russia’s trans-Korean gas pipeline project. On the contrary, all indications are that Moscow is in consultation with Washington and the two capitals have shared concerns over the NK nuclear issue. Isn’t that strange? If the US is capable of showing the wisdom to comprehend that the trans-Korean pipeline can calm the Korean Peninsula, why should it have double standards vis-a-vis IPI? Shouldn’t South Asian security and stability be of equal interest to the US regional strategy?
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