The young man that set himself on fire in Tunisia sparkled the flames of an unprecedented turmoil around the Arab world. The West powers embracing the wave of change involved in the Libyan civil war. On top of the uncertain outcome of the Arab Spring the Israel - Palestinian issue is in the hart of the becoming as the Arab League on September is going to table a request for recognition of Palestine at UN as a full-fledged state with full membership at the international organization. The allies of the present Libyan war will sit at the opposite ends of the table during the UN's assembly as that move is rejected by the US .
Following Mubarak's fall a poll taken found Egyptians favored annulling the peace treaty with Israel by a 54 to a 36 percent margin. The anti - Israel feelings are reinforced by the rise of Muslim Brotherhood's popularity reflected on the lyrics of a local top pop song declaring "I hate Israel and I love Amr Moussa’’ when he is the former Secretary - General of the Arab League and a candidate in the Egyptian presidential election forthcoming on October or November. As a former U.S. peace negotiator Aaron David Miller put it: ‘‘The irony is that the challenges a new Egypt will pose to America and Israel won’t come from the worst case scenarios imagined by frantic policymakers and intelligence analysts an extremist Muslim takeover, an abrogation of peace treaties, the closing of the Suez Canalbut from the very values of participatory government and free speech that free societies so cherish.’ While Israelis fear change will create instability bolstering extremists the other side, namely Hamas and Abbas' government that in April signed a unity agreement reserving that both parties could please constituents on a key issue without risking their own holds on power responding to the present need to realign the national and social agenda and engage with diverse Palestinian communities. On May 3, Netanyahu called on Abbas to cancel the agreement, contending that Israel could not make peace with a Palestinian government that included a terrorist organization.
The coming elections
Besides these complications and the economic crises the major players have to face a pre - election alarmed period, being so unable to inspire solid and long term promises in their foreign policy. USA's presidential election is to be held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Furthermore 2012 - 13 is characterized as the double electoral shock of French and German elections. Russian presidential elections is coming on 2012 along with China's (January 14). Israel's next elections is on December while the aforementioned agreement between Hamas and Abas paved the way for a new Palestinian elections in 2012. Iran set March 2012 for parliamentary elections while India July. So are Brazil and Turkey in 2012.
This dense forest of elections renders every agreement abortive emphasizing the uncertainty and instability of the present situation.
The UN membership
While claims are made that Netanyahu "made a deal" with Romania and Bulgaria to vote against the bid in exchange of permits to their nationals to work in Israel and a Palestinian delegation returning from Moscow said that Russia is supporting the bid to seek recognition it is evident that we are in front of a diplomatic race. Israel have launched a campaign to mobilize against recognition while PLO is running an opposite "massive" one.
The U.N. membership requires a recommendation from the Security Council and approval by two-thirds of the General Assembly, or 128 countries out of the 192 members. With the U.S. poised to veto the approval of Palestinian statehood at the U.N. Security Council, the Palestinians plan to turn to the General Assembly, whose decision would be non binding but could send a strong international message and put heavy pressure on Israel.
Considering last year's voting where the Palestinians achieved to get 123 votes and adding the thirty more recognitions that they have at present it is quite possible that they will amount in percentage terms the same proportion as Israel received in its 1949 admission to the organization.
On top of these one wonders if there is a strong reason for the Libyan war to be terminated before the forthcoming UN assembly on September.
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